Facebook and Google+... who will stay and who will go?

Larry Page recently announced that Google+ has reached 10 million users. With the buzz around Google’s entry into social media there has been much speculation on whether they can steal Facebook’s crown. On one hand we have Google, a massive company with lots of resources and years of experience. On the other we have Facebook, who have a massive head start. They have a huge lead in the amount of users (750 million on Google’s 10 million) and they have years more experience in running a successful social network.

People moved from Myspace so it could happen again

I’m sure you have seen this argument on the Internet over the last year or so. It’s the counter argument to the fact that Facebook has reached the point that they have so many users it’s impossible for anyone to catch them. I think both of these arguments are a little off the mark, both tend to suggest there’s only room for one social network. I would say there’s room for more than one. I think people will move, but not in the same way they migrated from Myspace.

Facebook has reached a critical mass, which includes users who weren’t just slow to get into social networking, they were slow to get onto the internet. There’s people who are only just signing up to Facebook, after many years of massive popularity. For people like this, moving to a new platform will not be something that interests them. They’re familiar with Facebook and Facebook is where their friends are. The fact that these users will stay is a reason for people who get a Google+ account to stay on Facebook. This will lead to people having both a Facebook and Google+ account.

When people moved from MySpace

MySpace didn’t have 750 million users who moved. There was a lot less people who moved from MySpace to Facebook. Also, the people who used MySpace were relatively early adopters to social networking anyway. They were mainly young, tech savvy users. Facebook offered a better user experience so gradually people stopped using MySpace for Facebook.

These are the sort of people who will open Google+ accounts. Out of curiosity or to be part of the next big thing. They won’t be closing their Facebook accounts however, they’ll be using both.

Google will also get users out of people who aren’t interested in social networking. All the services which people use on Google will be integrated into Google+ meaning people who are already using these services will fall into the networking side of things.

Of course Google+ will offer a strong marketing platform, so brands and marketers will be there to create content to attract users. Zynga is also in partnership with Google, so the games which have attracted people to spend much of their time on Facebook will also be on Google. Although of course, they will still be on Facebook.

Does Google even want everyone to move?

I doubt Google realistically thinks that everyone will move from Facebook to Google+, at least in the short term. Is this even their aim?

Google is after social data so they can improve the quality of their search results. Even if Facebook was willing to share their data with Google it’s not as valuable as having their own data. As we have seen, their contract expired with Twitter, so their realtime search results product was disbanded. This loss hasn’t affected many but it’s an example of what could happen when relying on another company’s data. I would say that Google aims to move into the Social space so they can have their own social data and to challenge Facebook’s near complete control.

At the moment Facebook seems to have a good relationship with Microsoft, they’re sharing their social metrics with Bing and not with Google. If Google had social data of their own they wouldn’t need to worry about what data Bing is getting from Facebook. This means they can compete with Bing in search and Facebook in social. It has been speculated for a while now that Facebook will move into search, so a preemptive move like this from Google keeps them ahead of the game. Google will probably not overtake Facebook in size any time soon. They will however, stop Facebook from having as much control as they do now.

Both the aim of Facebook and Google is to get as many visitor’s to their sites and keep them there as long as possible. So for Google to ignore something which a lot of internet users are spending most of their time on would be crazy.

More Facebook competition?

I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple got involved with social networking. People are already using their iOS devices to create and share content over Facebook and Twitter. Apple obviously already know this and will see that they might as well be sharing it over an Apple owned network.

They already have tried to get into social networking with the unsuccessful Ping.fm, this shows that they’re at least interested. With the upcoming iCloud we will see files automatically uploaded to the cloud. All they’d have to do was make it an option to share the files publicly. Attach a profile to AppleIDs which all their customers have and you would have a social network for people to use over iOS. They’ve also got FaceTime and they’re soon to release a BBM like messenger for iOS. So they’ve already got the audience, the interest to build one and the infrastructure, it just needs to be integrated together.

No strong competition

The reason Facebook has managed to get its user base is because of the lack of strong enough competition. There has been competition but Facebook was able to innovate and leave these other services behind. Now, with Google+ (and possibly Apple?) the future of social networking will become more fragmented. There will be people who will be on everything that’s out, and some people will move. This could be out of brand loyalty, or features offered on one rather than the other. Then there are the people who will stay on Facebook because that’s where they already are and that’s where their friends are.

With a competitor like Google they certainly have a lot to think about, but I can see both of these networks being successful at the same time. If Google+ ever manages to trump Facebook it’s not going to be an overnight feat.


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