Hypothetical war between South Korea and North Korea cost world $4 trillion

By Alimat Aliyeva

The first year of a full-scale war between the Republic of Korea and the DPRK could cost the global economy $4 trillion, which is 3.9% of the total GDP of the whole world, Azernews reports.

It notes that a full-fledged war on the Korean peninsula is "very unlikely." However, in the event of a conflict, human and economic losses will be devastating, Bloomberg suggests.

The first year of hostilities between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea, according to the analysis of this hypothetical scenario, could cost the global economy $4 trillion, which is 3.9% of the world's GDP. This is "more than twice as much" as the consequences of the war in Ukraine, the agency claims.

Millions could die in the war, Bloomberg adds. Approximately 26 million people live in the Seoul agglomeration, which is located in the zone of destruction of the DPRK artillery, half of the population of the Republic of Korea.

The agency calls the Republic of Korea "a semiconductor factory built on a geopolitical fault." Samsung Electronics supplies about 41% of DRAM chips and 33% of NAND memory chips in the world. The products of the South Korean corporation are bought in both the USA and China. Seoul and its environs account for 81% of the country's chip production and 34% of industrial production.

The agency believes that in the event of a war on the peninsula, South Korean semiconductor factories could become a target for North Korean artillery and its short-range ballistic missiles. The latter have a range of about 250 km.

During the first year of the conflict, the GDP of the Republic of Korea may decrease by 37.5%. A decrease in exports of South Korean semiconductors and other goods may lead to a decrease in China's GDP by 5%, the American economy may shrink by 2.3%, according to the agency's analysis.