Afghan potential in regional aspect

Afghanistan has turned into a widely ramifying line between Central and South Asia because of historical reasons. Restoring the social and economic structures and Afghanistan's statehood can play a significant role in creating new conditions for the entire region. Restoration of peace in Afghanistan and infrastructure relations between Central Asia and South Asia mean Afghanistan's energy supply and its integration into the global area.

Launching the anti-terrorist campaign in Afghanistan and normalising the situation have become another opportunity for international cooperation and Central Asian countries entering the global area. This is especially important for Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Indeed, if peace is restored in Afghanistan, then these countries route to the South Asian region will be opened.

Afghanistan's returning to a peaceful life still remains one of the most urgent international challenges which have not been resolved. Moreover, NATO's vainness in Afghanistan is a serious test for the possibility of forming a union of the regional countries. NATO members have not reached agreement on distributing the responsibilities. This means the servicemen of some countries are at war and those of other countries just conduct a humanitarian mission or perform police functions.

Modern Afghanistan resembles the territory upon which the independent military and political groups are separately placed, whose influence on the spot is stronger than the central power. That is why the uncertainty continues in the country. Instability is a potential threat to the national security of each individual country of the Central Asian region.

While suspending the military presence in one form or another in Afghanistan after 2014, the U.S will be able to freely operate in Central Asia. Of course, Washington will not be able to oust Russia from the region. Moreover, the desire of both countries to gain a foothold in Central Asia will face a mutual resistance.

One must not forget about the third, very important player in Central Asia - China. Frankly speaking, the recent events in South-East Asia show that Beijing is likely to pay more attention to it and give Moscow the geopolitical advantage in Central Asia.

How can Central Asian countries maintain security in a similar situation?

The main cause of the U.S 'caring' attitude to the Central Asian countries is the desire to create a foothold in the region for potential military operations against Iran, Russia, and China. Therefore, Central Asian countries themselves are the guarantees of the security of their countries. One must not deny Russia's interests in the region by virtue of which it will assist the Central Asian countries.

It should be stressed once more that Afghanistan certainly has great potential and is an important country for the region. However, political realities and the 'heroin economy' nullify this potential, at least at this stage, but the region may get 'sick fatigue' of endless experimentation with different political scenarios.


Arzu Naghiyev / Trend/