Turkey's 'scenario for Syria'

A range of sanctions against the official Damascus were used to prevent conflict in the country, but these sanctions had no effect, the confrontation between the government and opposition forces has become more widespread on the contrary.

It was clear from the earliest days of confrontation that the Syrian government will not be overthrown quickly. Because, unlike the countries touched by the "Arab Spring", Syria is under the direct influence of Iran, which seeks to preserve its influence in the region.
It is possible that the regime of Bashar al-Assad is still not able to break the strong resistance of the opposition in the country.

If study what is happening deeper it will be clear that one of the major players in Syria is Russia.

However, the policy carried out by Ankara in the region, and particularly support of Turkey to the Syrian opposition, gives grounds to assert that Turkey is as politically active in Syria as Russia and Iran.

At the initial stage, Turkey followed an advice policy and monitors the situation, but then due to the course of events, Turkey had to take a more active role in the situation in Syria.

It would be wrong to link Ankara's increasingly active role in the Syrian events only with reluctance to see an unstable state in the region. Of course, along with this fact the desire of Ankara to become a leader in the region and expand its political influence isn't excluded.

Turkish officials are well aware that the decision of the Syrian crisis is in their hands. It is the reason why not direct military intervention, but support for opposition forces and the political path is chosen for the resolution of the crisis.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Yemeni model could be used in Syria.
Davutoglu said they want the authorities to give up to the people before the collapse of the state.

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, signed plan for the transfer of power in the country in November 23, 2011 in Saudi Arabia.

At first glance, the proposal seems to be ideal for resolving the crisis, but the use of Yemen model in Syria, is impossible.

Because this plan, implemented at the initiative of Saudi Arabia to "prevent" clashes in Yemen, in fact, was a step directed against Iran, benefiting from the unstable situation in the country. The situation in Syria is completely different.

Changes in relations between Ankara and Tehran aren't excluded depending on the course of events in Syria.

It can be assumed that the political way of solving the Syrian crisis is over and military intervention may be used soon. It is possible that after the resolution of the situation in Syria , the crisis will move to Lebanon, which is the closest ally of Iran.


/Trend/