American analyst: Minsk Group format was doomed to failure from the very start

Can one say that international organizations moved away from settlement of the Karabakh problem following unfruitful OSCE summit in Astana?

It is obvious that the OSCE is a totally ineffective organization. The OSCE is not directly involved in the process of settling the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Even the OSCE Minks Group is involved in the negotiation process through three mediating countries. The OSCE can only ratify or approve the settlement formula, which can be achieved by co-chairs. This means that the OSCE plays only a symbolic role in this process. As the negotiation process had stalled, it was clear that the summit in Astana will not be able to mark any progress in resolving the conflict. But progress is impossible, because the work of the OSCE Minsk Group mediators is not effective.
 
Armenian factor, namely, Armenian voters and Armenian business circles, has very strong influence in the U.S., Russia and France. The governments of the mediator countries are not entirely free to plan policies that would not suit Armenia and Armenian lobby. Therefore, the format of three co-chairs was doomed to failure from the very start, and there's nothing you can do about that.
 
According to many political analysts, the U.S. has moved away from the Karabakh conflict settlement. At least throughout 2010, Washington, unlike Moscow, did not show himself in this respect. In your opinion, what is the reason?

There are many reasons. One of them is the influence of Armenian political circles on the American administration. However, this did not prevent the U.S. to overtake the initiative in the Karabakh conflict settlement at the end of the Clinton administration. At that time, there was a strong internal influence of the Armenian diaspora, too. But after all, Washington took the initiative, and I must say, it almost succeeded in reaching a settlement of the conflict at the summit in Key West.
 
However, later, the U.S. lost, namely, gave up this initiative. Another reason is the failure of U.S. policy in the South Caucasus and the Caspian Basin. Washington has no consistent policy in this region. The U.S. is now engaged in solving problems that partly arose from senseless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and confrontation with Iran. The U.S. efforts to fight against terrorism at the global level not only by political but also military means have failed and gave the opposite effect. To date, the U.S. lacks the financial and military resources and political attention to solve other problems. These are reasons for U.S. disengagement from the South Caucasus and the Caspian Basin.

It should also be noted that the Barack Obama administration has failed to appoint ambassador to Azerbaijan for almost two years. There has been no American ambassador to Turkmenistan for almost 3 years, where the U.S. and Azerbaijan have common gas interests. Incidentally, this is also result of domestic political considerations. Washington's policy has a vacuum of strategic thinking in relation to regions of Eastern Europe. When there is no strategic thinking, only one thing - democracy and human rights – take a lead. It is because of the lack of strategic thinking that democratization and human rights occupy an important place not in politics, but in rhetoric from Washington.
 
Until the U.S. finishes the war in Afghanistan and builds a real dialogue with Iran, it will continue to deal with these insignificant issues and it will have no strategy in Eastern European countries. The United States, one might say, has forgot about Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan while, in strategic terms, future of Europe, the European Union and NATO is related with these countries. The future of these organizations depends on eastern partners in Europe, but not on those countries in which the U.S. is conducting military operation and unpromising political confrontation.

The U.S. diplomatic cables recently published by WikiLeaks revealed Armenia sold weapons to Iran which later ended up in Iraq and were used against American troops. As it turned out, the Armenian opposition press wrote about it long before WikiLeaks and even cited exact names of individuals involved in this "deal". Why the U.S. does not to impose sanctions against Armenia?

The question is very interesting. You can only give a hypothetical answer. The factor of the Armenian diaspora again plays a role. WikiLeaks released information about this last month during elections to the U.S. Congress. The Democratic Party of America cherishes every vote in the election. Obama administration knew that it would lose elections to the Congress. Therefore, the White House in panic made conciliatory statements toward Armenia for fear of angering Armenian voters.  Although I do not think that Obama would criticize Armenia if it did not coincide with the election. Generally, there is a certain irony. In fact, Armenia sold weapons to Iran at a time when current Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan was defense minister. That is, it turns out that he was also involved in this.

Recently, the possible discussion of "Armenian genocide" in the Lower House of Congress stirred up some tension...
 
The issue is raised in the U.S. in April every year. There is a document passed by Congress which recognizes April 24 as Day of Remembrance of Armenians. Obama calls this day the "big disaster" in Armenian. So, every year on the eve of April 24, Armenian organizations and U.S. politicians sympathetic to them demand Congress to pass a special resolution, which would oblige the American president to consider the 1915 events as "genocide."

Undoubtedly, this issue will be raised in 2011, too. But now the Congress will less likely to adopt a special resolution as number of congressmen from the Republican Party has increased in the Congress. They are not as dependent on Armenian votes as Democratic congressmen. The overwhelming majority of U.S. citizens of Armenian origin vote for Democratic candidates. Democrats are convinced that they are highly dependent on votes of Armenians. In addition, there are signs that Obama administration has finally understood that the policy of pressure on Turkey to discuss "genocide" resolution in Congress has failed and this can not be used as leverage against Turkey. I think that after 4 months Congress will once again raise the issue of the resolution, but it will once again fail.


/Day.Az/