Russian expert explained why no progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue can be reached

Alexander Krylov, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of World Economy and International Relations said he believes that the Turkish-Armenian relations are not likely to reach any progress.

According to him, "The Armenian-Turkish relations are less likely to see progress in the context of “Armenian genocide". This problem continues to be the main obstacle to the normalization of bilateral relations. Along with Karabakh problem, it has also blocked the peace process. The progress is seen not in the Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan triangle, but in relations of these countries with other countries. There has been an unprecedented deterioration in relations between Turkey and Israel and between Turkey and the United States as of late. In the latter case, the reason for this was the resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide by the U.S. Congress committee".

"In the meatime, Azerbaijan is developing gas cooperation with Russia and Iran at a fast pace. Azerbaijan could diversify gas supplies quickly, efficiently and with great benefit although gas negotiations between Azerbaijan and Turkey did not reach the desired result so far. This is unlikely to delight the EU and U.S., who still cherish hopes for the Nabucco project. All this indicates that the situation in the Caucasus and around it is rapidly changing forcing states in the the region to seek response to fundamentally new challenges. More surprises should be expected,” the expert said.

Krylov believes the resolution of the Karabakh conflict is less likely to see major changes any time soon. The past events hinder development of relations between states in the region.

"Obviously, Armenia and the Armenian Diaspora will do everything to signify 95th anniversary of the 1915 events as much as they can, and not only to mark it as a sad date, but also get  weighty political and diplomatic benefits. But I dont think this approach will lead to progress in settlement of the Karabakh problem or in the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. Not politicians or public members, but professional historians should have played a major role here. The events of the past should not prevent the neighboring nations from building normal and successful future," he said.

"Dramatic changes in the situation can occur not as a result of April 24th, but as a result of changes in Iraq, who neighbors with Caucasus and Turkey. As we know, the withdrawal of the U.S. Army is not far off. It is not yet clear how it will be implemented and what it will be followed by. Forecasts are rather negative and even apocalyptic.”

“Obviously, radical change in this situation will inevitably affect the Caucasus and Turkey. It is possible that, given the fundamentally new security challenges, the current differences between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey will become less acute. This gives hopes that the dialogue between them will become much more constructive,” Krylov noted.


T. Teymur
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