Azerbaijani analyst: Armenia understands that it's the end of the game

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is going to trip to the U.S. on April 12-13. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan will also be on a visit to the U.S. In your opinion, what can we expect from these visits in terms of the Turkey-Armenia normalization and resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

The U.S. wants to play a priority role in normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations and the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. It initially tried to dominate the issue of signing of the Zurich protocols, but did not succeed because Turkey realized that it is fraught with serious changes in the region. Turkey realizes that there are interests of Azerbaijan and these issues must be addressed in a constructive way.

The Americans once again attempt to bring together viewpoints and move the process of Armenian-Turkish normalization of the impasse. They also see the intransigence of the Armenian side in terms of the updated Madrid principles, in which Armenia is stubborn and does not want to make any compromises.

So, I think that Obama is taking the next step to bring these positions together and find a way out of this impasse.

In your opinion, what this visit may alter in the Turkey-U.S. relations? Will Turkey send its ambassador back to the U.S.?

I have no doubt that Turkey will send its ambassador back to the United States. In this context, return of the ambassador to his workplace in some sense will not affect further development of relations between the U.S. and Turkey. This is purely formal and procedural matter.

Another thing is that Erdogan's visit to the United States, at first glance, should serve to foster the US-Turkish relations. But this will not happen, because today Turkey and the United States have quite strained ties.  

The fact is that there are so many antecedents. Once Turkey clearly voiced its position on the Iraqi sisue not allowing the Americans to use its territory. At the moment, Turkey is in a process of rapprochement with Iran and Syria and is trying to establish closer ties with Russia, with whom it had signed various energy deals.

So, Turkey is no longer obedient regional player for the U.S. Of course, I would not say the relations between the countries will be hostile, but that they have ceased to allied any more. The United States must be blamed for this above all.

U.S. President Barack Obama did not uttered the word “genocide” during his last year's speech prior to April 24. Do you think Obama is going to use this world this year?

I think he will not utter this word this year, too, because Obama, as a head of a powerful nation like the U.S., does not need to do this. He realistically assess the situation. Also, the U.S. administration opposed adoption of the "genocide" resolution by the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs from the very beginning. Hillary Clinton also opposed the adoption of such resolution.

I think Obama has enough savvy and pragmatism and will not say this word. U.S. needs Turkey as it plays an important role in the region and serves as a bridge for relations with the Middle East region and the Muslim world, in general. And Obama is well aware of this.

Anyway, so far, Obama has behaved correctly as regards the recognition of events of 1918 as "genocide". Even the resolution on "genocide" was adopted in the Congress with a margin of one vote.

In your opinion, why Armenia is slow to express its attitude on the updated version of the Madrid principles? To what extent is resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by military ways is relevant today?

It is obvious that Armenia is confused. It is in an impasse, because it is very difficult to constantly reject all of these Prague and Madrid principles. Armenia is engaged in trading seeking to bargain for further privileges and some priorities.

Armenia, realizing that sooner or later it will have to liberate the occupied Azerbaijani lands, tries to bargain as much as possible and solve the status of Nagorno-Karabakh right now.

Just recently, the co-chairs of OSCE Minsk Group visited Yerevan and the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. But the Armenian side did not give clear reply on the updated Madrid principles, because it understands that this is end of the game. This is loss of privileges, the return of occupied territories and a need to continue negotiations on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenians understands that no one will ever recognize this entity as as an independent country including Azerbaijan first and foremost.

Perhaps, Armenia also fears use of military force by Azerbaijan. So, I think that the panic in the Armenian society and statements by different opposition forces are aimed to prolong this conflict as long as possible.

But, sooner or later, Armenia will have to respect the international law and liberate the occupied territories and recognize Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.


/Day.Az/