Russian political expert: Azerbaijan’s occupied lands must be liberated as a first step

By what principles were members of the of U.S. Congress committee guided while adopting resolution on the so-called Armenian "genocide"?

First and foremost, I want to remind that the Committee of the U.S. Congress adopted the resolution with a margin of one vote - 23 to 22 which called the legitimacy of this decision into question. It was immediately followed by a statement from Hillary Clinton, who said that neither she nor President Barack Obama will force the further discussions on this issue in Parliament.

Moreover, it seems to me that internal political situation in the U.S. also plays a role in this regard because there in autumn there will be re-election to the House of Representatives and local elections

Given this, as well as significance of the Armenian lobby in Congress, I would say there was less than a vague step towards recognition of "genocide". Now all the moves in this direction are suspended, and the tension will continue until April 24 - Day of Remembrance for the so-called "Armenian genocide". After that, interest in this topic, as usually, will weaken.

The Armenian lobby in the States and Armenia itself are very actively debating whether Barack Obama will pronounce the word "genocide" in his speech on that day, he will call on Congress to recognize it or all these will not happen at all?

Anyway, neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will recommend the Congress to include the discussion on the so-called "Armenian Genocide" into the agenda. In this case, the interest in this  problem will gradually descend to zero. There is no unequivocal reaction to the move by the the Congress committee in Armenia itself. There are some forces that do not consider it necessary to insist on adopting the resolution, but offer to make a compromise to Ankara leaving question of so-called "genocide" to historians.

I do not think that the U.S. will continue to discuss this issue. Neither Washington nor Ankara, and even not everybody in Yerevan are interested in this. Despite the fact that Kazbegi-Upper Lars checkpoint between Georgia and Russia opened recently somehow connecting Armenia with the outer world, mostly with Russia, opening the border with Turkey, which links Armenia to Europe, is very important.  

In your opinion, what was the reason behind Swedish parliament’s move to recognize the “Armenian genocide”? Was it result of the U.S pressure?

I think that there was no particular pressure from the U.S. Sweden is a country which pays special attention to problems of national minorities and human rights,. This move is of humanitarian nature than political.

Then why did it happen exactly now? Is this a coincidence?

Hard to say. Frankly, the decision of the Swedish Parliament astonished me. In politics, such coincidences do not happen, but if this is true, then this is definitely a serious puncture in the foreign policy of Sweden.

In your view, how will the relations between the U.S. and Turkey develop?

These relationships are very special issue. Over the last decade they have evolved differently. And here it is appropriate to recall a time when the war started in Iraq. Back then Turkey effectively blocked passage of the U.S. military to Iraq through its territory. Turkey has already made it clear that it intends to pursue an independent policy.

However, it is not just the fact that Ankara has its own interests in the Middle East and Islamic world. Turkey has recently taken a negative stance towards Israel. As a result, the U.S. does not receive the necessary support from Turkey against Iran. All this configuration is very contradictory and tense.

And how will the Armenian-Turkish relations develop?

I believe that a significant part of the Armenian leadership wants to continue negotiations with Turkey. However, they understand that there is much tied to the relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Turkey cannot afford to go too far in its relations with Armenia to the detriment of relations with Azerbaijan.

Last year, we witnessed intensive negotiations on settlement of the the Karabakh conflict including at the highest level, Given the recent developments in US-Turkish and Armenian-Turkish relations, can we expect something similar this year?

I want to note that without some definite progress in resolving the Karabakh conflict, Turkey will not take steps further steps to normalize relations with Armenia. As for the Karabakh conflict, it is important to gradually solve the problem. The most important thing to begin with is to liberate occupied territories of Azerbaijan. It should happen finally. .

In your opinion, how Russia will act given the relations between Turkey and the U.S.?

Relations with the U.S are very important for Russia. So, it will make no sharp moves in relations with Turkey. It is important to note that Ankara and Moscow have moved much closer in recent times. As we know, EU does not admit Turkey and Russia also has problem with Europe. Positions of the countries are similar on certain issues icluding the Black Sea, Iran and some economic issues.


/Day.Az/