Azerbaijani analyst: Elementary pragmatism tells the U.S. Congress not to make unnecessary moves

In your opinion, what will the U.S. lose in event the Congress adopts the “Armenian genocide” resolution?

Turkish PM Erdogan and country's other senior officials have many times warned of negative consequences in case the Congress adopts this resolution. Suffice it to recall losses the U.S. suffered during the recent Iraq campaign without obtaining access to Turkish airspace.

In addition, adoption of this resolution will have a very negative impact on mood in entire Muslim world which is very sensitive and rapidly responds to Washington's positioning in the context of all the problems in general and with regard to the Armenian question in particular.

Due to Iranian problem America does not want to deteriorate relations with Turkey. Elementary pragmatism tells the U.S. Congress not to make unnecessary moves causing crisis confidence with leaders of a Muslim country. The U.S. national interests are not commensurate with those dividends that a curtsey to the Armenian Diaspora and Armenia as well may bring.

Does the White House Spokesman Mike Hammer’s statement that President Barack Obama urges Turkey and Armenia not to return to historical events, but live for today, confirm your views?

Of course. This time it was demonstrated to Yerevan that the U.S. understand theirs claims. I think the U.S. moves with regard to the “Armenian Genocide” resolution will not go beyond this. I think this year President Obama will find a streamlined shape for interpretation of the events of 1915 in Ottoman Turkey to avoid deterioration of relations with Turkey and at the same time satisfy the Armenian diaspora.

Do Armenian officials and Armenian lobby in the U.S. understand this?

Those with slightest ability to analyze existing geopolitical realities are well aware that there is no chance that the U.S. Congress will pass the resolution on so-called "Armenian genocide". Thinking people are well aware of the fact that this issue has long ceased to be a major element demonstrating the U.S. attitude to Armenia. This is just a rudimentary tool of manipulation, with which tactical issues rather than strategic ones are solved.

Armenia and the Armenian lobby in the U.S. have simply no other options to realize their main objective to help Armenia to get out of stagnation. This country has become a real burden for the world community. It needs to do something to pull it out of the quagmire of alienation. The paradox is that outside forces are dragging it forward, and this semi-entity drags backward voicing new territorial claims against Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia. To achieve their goals they agree to be in the status of the object in Turkish-American relations.

In your opinion, will this position of Armenia and the Armenian diaspora lead to the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation and opening of borders between Turkey and Armenia?

I think that one day  Armenian-Turkish reconciliation will finally take place but not to detriment of Azerbaijan’s interests. The fact that Armenia has submitted its proposals on outstanding items of the Madrid principles to the OSCE Minsk Group confirms that reconciliation of the neighbors will run in parallel with a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Thus, it becomes evident that the Armenian government's attempts to achieve opening of Turkish-Armenian border, leaving the process of settling the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict for later failed. United States, other countries co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group, as well as Turkey are forced to take into account Azerbaijan’s interests exerting pressure on Armenia to resolve regional problems. As a result, I think, there would be some progress on both issues.


A. Hasanov