Chief editor of Russian newspaper: Unrealistic to expect the Armenia-Turkey border will open by year-end

Can you say the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations are in deep crisis, simply put, it have once again stalled?

Well, it's a logical thing, and this was expected. I do not think that even in case of success of the negotiation process we can expect a rapid and definitive solution. Nevertheless, current pause does not mean that the negotiations are completely curtailed or ended in failure. Simply, we are witnessing the moment characteristic of such a complex process.

Can the position of any of the parties which delays the whole process most of all be considered?

I think it is difficult to determine such a side. Firstly, we do not know all details of the negotiations. Secondly, neither side is prepared to finally accept what the opposite sees as compromise. That is, the concept of compromise implies entirely different things. And beyond the immediate parties to the negotiations, there is public opinion in both countries. Therefore, it seems logical that there are pauses in the negotiations from time to, a situation where you have a feeling that everything is on the verge of collapse. But I see nothing extraordinary about what is happening.

In your view, does Moscow have vital desire to move the negotiations forward, or, by and large, it does not matter for it?

No, of course, it does matter for Russia. Nagorno-Karabakh conflict takes place near the Russian borders, and it is no secret that Russia’s situation in the Caucasus is also not the best. This is a very sensitive region. A desire is one thing, and opportunities  are another thing. And Russia’s possibilities are also quite limited. The prevailing impression that Russia can make one of the parties to accept any conditions is wrong.

How would you comment on level of danger of the active fire fighting between military forces of both sides, accompanied by the losses that have occurred recently at the frontline between Azerbaijan and Armenia? Can they lead to full-scale resumption of the war?

I do not think that clashes can lead to resumption of hostilities. There is a slightly different order of causes and effects. There is no peace, but there is a truce. The truce could end up in a peace or the resumption of hostilities. Unfortunately, this skirmish is neither first nor the last one.

A skirmish may well turn into a major war.
 
However,  it is naive to assume global hostilities could resume as a result of local clashes somewhere on the Armenian-Azerbaijani contact line. The situation is quite controllable. It is not a period of collapse of the USSR, emergence of new states, when really none of the sides had armies, but some scattered units. Now everything is controlled, and no such thing will happen without order, without command, without addressing the country's leadership.

The process of the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement has also stalled. The Turkish side has accused Armenia of non-constructive approach due to its failure to live up earlier commitments. Will the process of rapproachement continue, or it can be completely disrupted?

In the current situation it is difficult to say to what extent this rapproachement process can be irreversible. It is obvious that relations between these two countries should normalize as a result of measures taken. It is hard to say now how soon it will happen. I do not exclude that the parties may withdraw their signatures halting the negotiation process. But this does not mean it will not resume in a year or two, or even in 5-10 years. In any case, I do not think that everything will happen quickly. It would be unrealistic to expect that the Armenia-Turkey border open by year-end.

R. Mehdiyev