Heydar Jamal: By his London speech Armenian president announced his consent to withdraw from Azerbaijan’s occupied lands

How would you comment on outcome of Armenian President Serzg Sargsyan’s recent visit to United Kingdom and statements he made there?

President Sargsyan’s visit to London and statements he voiced at the Chatham House suggest that he has rushed about and has no clear plan of action. Indeed, as shown by analysis of the realities, the leading European powers are interested in the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement to some extent while the U.S. actually do not want it because the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement would, in turn, lead to Iranian-Turkish rapprochement which does not suit Washington.

On the other hand, the United States is interested in changing the whole situation in the South Caucasus region and it is not satisfied with Armenia current’s position. Because it contradicts U.S. plans to deploy  NATO bases in the South Caucasus. To realize its plans, the U.S. needs to blow up the situation, to instigate direct military confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia which would give pretext to the international community, in fact the United States and NATO, to intervene in this confrontation. Of course, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan understands this.

He realizes that his actions do not suit the U.S. It is for this reason that there is serious opposition to Serzh Sargsyan both within Armenia and the Armenian diaspora over which the president of this country is very concerned.

In other words, you believe that the Armenian opposition is influential enough to displace Serzh Sargsyan from the presidential post?

As far as I know, the political processes in Armenia come in waves in terms of aggression. But they all have a single goal - to force Serzh Sargsyan to step down. The Armenian opposition has potential to achieve its objective.

The opposition split at the moment. But once there is a leader who will be able to unite the opposition, it could force Sargsyan to seek dialogue with the opposition, hoping to agree with it. The Armenian President understands this.

Therefore, the Armenian President's London speech can be described as statement by a confused person. In fact, in London Serzh Sargsyan announced his consent to withdraw from the occupied Azerbaijani lands in response to West’s guarantee to help him to preserve his presidency. It was the cry of SOS by the Armenian President.

Given all these statements made, what are prospects for resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Let's start with the fact that the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will still have to be solved by force. Another question is when and with whose help. If Azerbaijan remains in isolation, it mean that resumed of military confrontation with Armenia will lead to the emergence of NATO forces in the region.

This will only turn entire South Caucasus into one big frontline zone against Iran which runs counter to interests of Azerbaijan. At the same time, Azerbaijan could easily choose use of force to recover its Armenian-occupied territories later at different, more favorable geopolitical situation for it to be preceded by a great diplomatic work.

A. Hasanov