Russian analyst: Armenian-Turkish dialogue will continue indefinitely

The Armenia-Turkey normalization process were stalled after Armenian Constitutional Court adopted the protocols with reservations. Some experts argue that difficult, but obvious process of ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols is underway and some say that Ankara-Yerevan dialogue has failed. What do you think about this?  

As you know, the most serious obstacle in normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations is a matter of assessing the events of 1915 in Ottoman Turkey. Armenia will never give up calling these events "genocide of Armenians". At the same time, Turkey will never agree to call these events "genocide", claiming that there was a deportation.

It should be noted that Turkey is becoming an increasingly important player in the region. Consequently, Turkey's position becomes increasingly rigid. All have to consider this including Armenia. In my view, this dialogue will continue in future, because both parties are interested in this.

What will the outcome of this dialogue, if the parties, its moderators have so substantial difference in assessing the events of 1915 in Ottoman Turkey?

It is for this reason that this dialogue will continue for a very long time, perhaps indefinitely. Existence of this kind of dialogue meets interest of the superpowers, primarily the U.S., which first initiated it. There is equally unequivocal position of the parties on the evaluation of the events of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire. Armenia considers this "genocide” while Turkey disagrees with this interpretation, drags out transition from dialogue to concrete steps towards the full normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.

In your opinion,  will Barack Obama call events in Ottoman Turkey as "genocide of Armenians" in this traditional speech on April 24?

Both strategic relationship with Turkey and the opinion of the Armenian diaspora and the Armenian lobby in the country is very important for the United States. For this reason, most likely, this time the U.S. president Barack Obama will provide a description of the events of 1915 in Ottoman Turkey which will not spoil relations with Turkey and the Armenian diaspora. This U.S. policy will continue not only this year but in subsequent years.

What is the role and degree of link between the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Ankara-Yerevan dialogue?

As we have noted above, Turkey has already declared itself a regional superpower. To expand this role, it is armed with the U.S. policy which stakes not on territory, but political elite of the countries in this area.

Consequently, the Turkish leadership stakes on the political elite of Azerbaijan and Armenia, in turn making the statement that suits one of the countries. It will carry out this policy also very long, perhaps indefinitely. This policy meets interests of Turkey, allowing it to be a key moderator in the process of settling the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and boost its clout as a regional superpower.

A. Hasanov