Russian analyst: Armenia-Turkey protocols not to be ratified soon

Do you believe in reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border after Ankara warned of breakdown in the Turkey-Armenia  normalizing being dissatisfied with the Armenian Constitutional Court decision?

Someday the Armenian-Turkish protocols will be ratified. But, I think, will not happen any time soon. The reason for the what is happening now is deeper - the Turkish side is not ready to officially recognize the “Armenian genocide” and Armenian side does not stand ready to make the steps Turkey requires.

In your opinion, what will be Russia’s attitude to the recent developments in relations between Turkey and Armenia?

Of course, the Caucasus has historically been a scene of clashes of geopolitical interests of Russia and Turkey. At present, Moscow and Ankara enjoy good neighborly ties. So, I believe closure and possiblee opening of the Armenian-Turkish border will have no complications unless, of course, dramatic changes occur between Russia and Turkey.

Will Russia take Turkey’s gaining leading position in the region normal?

Turkey has said it for nearly 20 years. The path to realize its words for it is very difficult and not short. In any case, it failed to become a regional power in those years when Russia was very weak. Now it is much harder. Russia does not compete with Turkey, on the contrary, competes with Russia on many projects, for example, the Abkhazian one.  

In your opinion, is Moscow, as Ankara, sincerely wants to resolve the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

After Kosovo, Abkhaz and Ossetian precedents, Cyprus’ admission to the EU without the Turkish part, I think the situation around the settlement of the  Nagorno-Karabakh conflict finally broke down. The main point is not who wants it or not, but that the very foundations of international law have been undermined.

How you can assess the year 2009 in terms of progress in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

I see no true progress in settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh. Indeed, there were a lot of meetings, conversations, declarations and intentions. It's better than nothing, but in fact, the parties remained in their original positions.


H. Hamidov