Analyst: Armenia may withdraw from Azerbaijan’s seven regions in 2010

What noticeable events happened in Azerbaijan in 2009?

2009 was not the worst year for Azerbaijan. It was full of important events. Formally, the events can be divided into negative and positive for our country. Negative facts include the Armenian-Turkish protocols the signing of which was a blow for Azerbaijan. Thus, the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement occurred not in line with Azerbaijan’s interests. Another negative fact is the next the U.S. financial assistance to the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan cannot be happy about such actions.

But, on the other hand, there were positive developments. Azerbaijan quite sharply reacted to Zurich protocols that harmed country’s interests. Baku's response prompted Ankara to change its tone in its relations with Armenia. The Turkish government gradually changed its position, given Azerbaijan's reaction to the Armenian-Turkish protocols. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan linked opening of borders with Armenia with liberation of Azerbaijan’s occupied regions in Washington. This fact is a testament to impact of Baku's position on the Armenian-Turkish negotiations. Frankly, given ambiguity in relation to the Zurich protocols in Turkey itself, I do not believe in opening the country's borders with Armenia. Another positive factor in Azerbaijan's diplomacy is Azerbaijan’s  rational response to U.S. aid to the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh.

In general, it should be noted that in 2009 the Azerbaijani political elite learned to react and to resist all that is contrary to country’s interests.

How do you assess progress in Karabakh negotiations in 2009? What are prospects of the Azerbaijani-Armenian dialogue in 2010?

Frankly, the negotiations on the Karabakh conflict in 2009 did not justify our hopes for an early resolution. The Armenian side continued its policy of primitive bargaining few occupied regions in exchange for the status of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh. However, Azerbaijan will never accept this exchange.

Nevertheless, there were positive developments. The negotiations intensified on the highest level in the second half of 2009. It was an attempt of Azerbaijani diplomacy to reverse the course of negotiations in its favor.

Also, we have witnessed a revival in the OSCE Minsk Group activities. Azerbaijan made it clear that it cannot forever tolerate occupation of its territories. Hopefully, revival of the negotiation process which occurred in the second half of 2009 will continue and eventually will bear fruit in 2010.                                    

Many analysts criticize the work of the OSCE Minsk Group and accuse it of inaction. Some suggest to reform and some suggest even to cancel it. How do you assess the group’s activities?

It is worth noting that the OSCE Minsk Group includes not only the three co-chair countries, but also other countries. I think that OSCE Minsk Group could convene where its co-chairs will be required to report on progress and provide perspectives on solving the Karabakh conflict. With regard the reforming the group, I consider it senseless if it does not bring any progress on the Karabakh issue.

Do you think Azerbaijan should lobby new resolutions on the Karabakh conflict by UN Security Council and other international organizations?  What is the range of Azerbaijan’s possibilities in case Armenia keeps on delaying resolution of the conflict?

There are many international resolutions on the Karabakh issue that recognize these lands as Azerbaijan’s territory and Armenia as an aggressor country. There are four of Security Council resolution as well as the Council of Europe decision in favor of Azerbaijan. Another thing is that there must be principles of international implementation of these decisions. I think that Baku should focus on pushing new resolutions, but I do not believe that their adoption will harm settlement of the Karabakh conflict.

However, if Armenia keeps on deliberately protracting the negotiations, I think resolution of the conflict by force is not excluded. We often hear concerns on the matter from the outside, but all need to bear in mind that Azerbaijan does not need foreign territories. We are only trying to return our territories occupied by Armenia.

Nevertheless, I believe that if positive dynamics achieved in the second half of 2009 is maintained and Azerbaijan has understanding of the OSCE Minsk, the resolution of the Karabakh conflict will see progress which will result in Armenia’s liberation of seven occupied regions of Azerbaijan in 2010 at the first stage of settlement.

Z. Ahmadov