Russian analyst: Nagorno-Karabakh is still Azerbaijani land for entire world

The latest round of talks on resolving Nagorno-Karabakh conflict recently was held in Munich. After the Munich meeting, OSCE Minsk Group stated progress in the conflict resolution. In your opinion, what does this progress imply?

Naturally, I am not aware of what the presidents talked about. But I do not particularly believe in some serious breakthrough in the negotiations. Politicians like as co-chairs tend to talk of such things. Regarding the negotiations, I do not remember that territorial disputes were settled peacefully on mutually beneficial terms in world history.

It is possible that in the end the Nagorno-Karabakh will be considered either Armenian territory or Azerbaijan territory. The question in this case is not whose lands they are, who is right and who is the aggressor. The fact is that each party tries assert its own interests. I do not recall any fact that two states with territorial disputes reached agreement peacefully.

For example, Georgia and Russia, Israel and Palestine, the dispute between Russia and Japan over the Kuril Islands, etc.

Do you mean you do not believe in peaceful solution to the problem? Azerbaijan has stated on many occasions that if the talks do not yield tangible results, Azerbaijan will solve the Karabakh problem by force ...

We live in a paradoxical time when solution of such problems through purely military means, as was the case in all previous centuries, is not popular while a purely legal solution to disputes has not fully replaced it. Let's have look at Karabakh. Armenia seized this land by force several years ago. Last year Russia almost tore away South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia. But no one in the world recognized these seizures. In the previous century, when there was no UN and no international law, the states seized the lands, denounced them as their territory and the issue was resolved. The United States and Russian Empire and other countries have appeared this way. However, this method does not work now since international law and the UN have been established. You can grab someone's land, but no one will recognize it at present times.   

Nagorno-Karabakh is still Azerbaijani land for whole world also from the standpoint of international law. One can do nothing about it.

If you think role of the UN and international law so strong, then why Armenia has not yet complied with the four UN resolutions on Nagorno-Karabakh and has not liberated occupied territories? Why the UN takes no serious action against the country?
 
The whole world politics is double standards. All states live in line with policy. But I repeat again that the point is that we live in an era when all recognize the international law, but it is not so serious so that it will be unconditionally accepted and obeyed.

With regard to Armenia’s failure to comply with UN resolutions, political influence of Armenia is very serious in this respect. There is a fairly influential Armenian lobby almost in all major countries of the world. In this case who will ensure their enforcement? It's not so simple.

But it is impossible to say that the resolutions have absolutely no value today. They are important both politically and economically. If they were simple piece of paper, Armenia would not hold negotiations today.

Once Azerbaijan finally decides to liberate its lands by war, will Russia who shares membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organization with Armenia, enter into the hostilities on the side of its ally?

In this case, one should simply view the CSTO charter. I think the CSTO is not such a rigid structure like NATO. Moreover, I'm not sure that CSTO has its own armed forces. If they exist, then perhaps they can take part in hostilities with the allies, but not as the whole army of member countries. However, this is formal. 

In fact, things are different. I have already said that Moscow may not be interested in resolving the conflict for the afore-said reasons. Moscow is not also interested in a military solution to the conflict. If Russia enters the war on the side of Armenia against Azerbaijan, it will mean a complete geopolitical catastrophe.

Russia will become Azerbaijan’s enemy in this case. One needs to take into account the factor of Georgia. Thus, the Kremlin will lose the whole Caucasus. Moreover, Azerbaijan is not like Georgia. In this case, there will be quite a different situation with the Nabucco gas pipeline project.

H. Hamidov