Analyst: Factors that contribute to resolving Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have appeared for first time after many years

How do you assess the outcomes of the recent Erdogan-Obama meeting?

Of course, the outcome Turkish prime minister’s U.S. trip and outcome of his talks with Barack Obama will become clear later when the agreements reached in Washington will be implemented. This visit was crucial on backdrop of current situation in our region. This visit was focus of attention not only in Azerbaijan and Turkey, but also in Armenia and Russia and many other countries.

Was the Erdogan-Obama meeting fruitful in terms of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Turkish prime minister kept his promise to Azerbaijan in the issue that Azerbaijan was interested most of all, namely interdependence between normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations and resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.  

It is wrong to rush to extremes accusing Turkey almost of betrayal or praising it. I think that this visit is not an end of some process. None of the issues that were raised at the meeting was resolved right there. The visit was part of a dynamic and very complex process.

I am sure that we all have to be patient, because in future we will face numerous situations when public opinions will be different as settlement of the Karabakh conflict is a very complicated process.

Despite all advances which the diplomats speak about, one needs to bear in mind that such complex processes are easier to disrupt rather to reach a final success. So, I'd still prefer to approach all negotiations with pragmatism rather than emotion.

In your opinion, could Erdogan persuade Obama that Turkey-Armenia border must not be opened until Azerbaijan’s occupied lands are liberated?

Ambiguity in this issue makes me to assess the visit with caution. Turkish prime minister voiced the position which Azerbaijan expected it to do. But all this does not mean a serious turning point in the negotiations. In my estimation, we are most close to signing any agreement first since the negotiation process was launched.

How do you assess the recent optimistic statements about resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

The situation in the region has now changed. There are certain expectation in Yerevan regarding normalizing relations with Turkey given difficult economic situation that Armenia faced due to closure of the Russia-Georgia border, global economic crisis, decline in country’s GDP with pessimistic forecasts for coming years.

It all makes the Armenian leadership to urgently seek a way out of this situation. Cooperation between Russia and Turkey and Azerbaijan and Russia has become much more significant in terms of regional energy projects. In this regard, Russia’s positive attitude to the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, as well as Turkey’s mediation role in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is also not accidental. This is due to serious economic and political reasons.

So, we can assume that in comparison with the situation of 10 years ago now there are certain prerequisites to reach an agreement.

But Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s positions are still opposed. Therefore, both countries have much work to do to coordinate the alleged compromise with public opinion. The public always accepts something very painful especially after years of official propaganda by their country about intransigence and achieving maximum results.

And when it's time to move toward compromise, what yesterday seemed a winning political rhetoric leads to a serious obstacle to reaching any agreement.

Therefore, we must be realistic. For the first time after many years some geopolitical factors have appeared that contribute to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict while the talks themselves are quite complex.


N. Abdullayeva
Day.Az