Turkey can begin diplomatic relations following ratification of protocols, but it will not open borders: Russian political expert

Day.Az: Turkey and Armenia signed protocols on the normalization of relations. What impact the possible opening of borders can have on general condition in the region?

Alexander Karavayev: It will certainly have a good impact on Armenia as its economy will receive a new impetus to development. This is obvious. As for Georgia and Azerbaijan, Georgia almost does not play any role. If we talk about politics, here the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has significance.

One can speak of three scenarios of further development of the events.

The first is positive. Under this scenario, the opening of borders between Armenia and Turkey will be somehow synchronized with the progress in withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. That is, if the promises given to Azerbaijan by Turkey and  by those countries who have been sponsors of this process are realized. Despite the fact that countries that Hillary Clinton and Sergei Lavrov represent did not directly state anything, I am sure that the U.S. has given promise to Baku that there is no reason for concern and that the interests of Azerbaijan will be taken into consideration in the Karabakh conflict. This is the scenario that would completely satisfy Azerbaijan.

The second scenario is possible in the event that Turkey will fail to negotiate with Armenia on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, and one of the protocol items in this case will fail. The protocols include two paragraphs:opening of borders and establishing diplomatic relations. So, Turkey can begin diplomatic relations after the signing and ratification of the protocols, but the borders will not be opened.

In this case, Turkey is not in danger of losing face before the public and Azerbaijan. In other words, if Turkey takes a step towards Armenia (protocol signing, ratification), but Armenia does not make a response step in the Karabakh issue, the further development of relations will be too complicated. That is, there will be diplomatic relations, but the normal political interaction, as with other countries, will not happen.

The third scenario is the most negative, in particular, for Azerbaijan. The protocols are signed, ratified, and they are followed by opening of borders. In this case, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will have to be resolved outside the context of Armenian-Turkish relations. This means that the Karabakh settlement will be postponed again in a long folder. It is clear that Azerbaijani elite will react quite strongly and as a result, anti-Turkish, anti-American and anti-Russian sentiments can grow in Azerbaijan.

Q: What factors may prevent ratification of the protocols in the Turkish Parliament?

A: I would say that ruling party is able to ratify the protocols in parliament. However, the question arises – with what ratification will be followed in Turkey? Equally important is how strongly sentiments of opposition will grow. There are many questions which is quite difficult to answer now. In my opinion, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a rigid politician responsible for his actions and words.

He knows what he is doing and what steps should be taken in case of aggravation of situation in Turkey. It is possible that external forces pushed for these steps, but again, he is not one of those politicians who are easily manipulated.

Q: There were much talks and opinion that the signing of the protocols will be followed by a speedy resolution to the Karabakh conflict. What are your views in this respect?

A: If we assume that the settlement of the conflict is withdrawal of Armenian forces from occupied regions around Nagorno Karabakh, one can consider this in the category of months. However, it is clear that the conflict will not end after withdrawal of Armenian troops. The main point here is the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. The withdrawal can begin at least from a number of areas, for example, from those areas that are not so principal for Armenians.

It is premature to say that Armenia will make further concessions after the first withdrawal of its troops from the occupied territories. In my opinion, to control these areas from the military point of view is not so fundamental. First of all, I mean those areas that do not connect Nagorno Karabakh with Armenia. Armenia may be willing to make some concessions, but this does not mean that it wants to resolve the conflict on the basis of Madrid Principles to the end.

/Day.Az/