Turkey will delay signing of protocols: Armenian expert

Day.Az: Serzh Sargsian attended the football match between Armenia and Turkey that recently took place in Bursa. How will the “football diplomacy” end? How will the relations between the two countries develop further?
 
Richard Giragosian: Now that the football game is over, there is an obvious momentum to this entire process of Turkish-Armenian normalization.  But this new stage of the diplomatic process, having moved the issue of normalization from the protocols to the parliaments, is the most challenging and difficult.  This stage will also be threatened by the need for both sides to feel compelled to make strong statements that may actually endanger the process of parliamentary ratification.  And I do think that the real challenge will be much more limited to the Turkish side, as the passage of the protocols by the Turkish parliament will not be easy or assured.

Q: The Turkish side, even after signing the protocols, continues to link the problem of the Nagorno-Karabakh with the opening of borders. What actions the Armenian parliament will take in such situation?

A: Given the fact that the Armenian government has a sizable majority of seats in the Armenian parliament, the adoption of the protocols by the Armenian side is not really in doubt.  But the fact that the Turkish side, at least publicly, still seeks to re-connect the Karabakh issue to the Turkish-Armenian normalization process poses a serious obstacle.  For the Armenian side, such a connection is unacceptable and, from an objective stand, it is too late and too dangerous to try to return the Karabakh issue into the process at this stage.  The Karabakh issue was removed from the protocols and it should not be seen as any sort of precondition or prerequisite.  This is not to say that there is no linkage between Karabakh and Turkish-Armenian diplomacy, but the connection is an indirect one, without bearing on the course of Turkish-Armenian diplomacy.

Q: How will you comment on the situation that appeared at the signing ceremony: firstly, the Armenian side delayed the signing, and then the sides did not make speeches…

A: The delay in the Zurich signing ceremony was interesting and revealed an element of the Turkish strategy to make new demands on Armenia at every opportunity.  The delay was caused by the Turkish foreign minister’s last-minute plan to make a speech after the signing ceremony, with a strong reference to Karabakh. This was a test of both Armenia, to see the response, and a test of the international community, to see what their response would be. But the Turkish test failed. The Armenians threatened to go home, and the Swiss and the US were very upset at the last-minute trick by the Turkish side, which they did not know about in advance.  It was also interesting that only the Swiss and the US were upset and intervened, not the Europeans or even the Russians.

Q: There is dissatisfaction both in the diaspora and inside the country with the protocols signed on the normalization of the relations. Will the protocols be ratified by the parliament on backdrop of growing dissatisfaction?

A: Now that the protocols were signed and the process moves from the protocols to the parliaments, the next challenge will be in the Turkish parliament, but not the Armenian parliament.  And we should expect the Turkish side to delay the vote in their parliament until early next year mainly because once the protocols are ratified the border is to open within 60 days.  But Turkey will likely wait until early next year.
 
/Day.Az/