Turkey may ratify protocols, but not open borders: expert on South Caucasus

Day.Az: The protocols on Turkey-Armenia relations were signed recently. To what degree these protocols are likely to be ratified by the governments of both countries? Will it ever happen?

Amanda Akcakoca: Whether ratification will ever happen is the million dollar question. The signing of the Protocols, although symbolically very important, was in many respects the easy part. Getting ratification in the two Parliaments will be more difficult even though both leaderships have majorities in their relevant parliaments. For Armenia, Serge Sargsyan increased pressure from both the Dashnaks at home and externally from the larger diaspora community abroad which will attempt to heat up the opposition in Armenia to boiling point.  

Both are opposed to a number of the issues in the protocols  and in particular the agreement to form a historical commission to investigate genocide claims. Sargsyan needs to keep a cool ahead, communicate to the nation the benefits of progressing the deal, and most importantly keep his eye on the prize.  With normalization Armenia will have a chance to move away from isolation and with that rid itself of the stranglehold it's diaspora have on the country - many of whom do not even hold an Armenian passport and have never set foot in the country.

Q: And what about Turkey?

A: In Turkey the process will also be far from easy. Although Armenia continues to state the normalization process is not linked to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, the Turkish government has made it very clear that it is. Therefore it will probably be difficult for the AKP to ratify until Armenia has shown willing to move on Nagorno Karabakh and in particular liberate at least five of the territories of Azerbaijan that it currently occupies. It is highly unlikely that Turkey will betray Azerbaijan not least because of opposition for such a move in Turkey, some of the more nationalistic elements of the AKP may not back the bill but also because Turkey will not want to risk losing Caspian gas deals from an increasingly eastward looking Azerbaijan.  But in this world nothing is impossible so there is a chance they may ratify but just not open the border. Probably delay tactics will be used as long as possible until something happens in Karabakh.

Q: It is believed that following the signing of the protocols, the resolution of the Karabakh conflict may take a new shape…

A: It is clear that now the protocols have been signed, there is an urgent need to speed up progress on resolution of Nagorno Karabakh. Nobody should expect a massive breakthrough but it is not impossible that concrete steps may take place before the end of the year. It will require a strong political will from both leaders as well as pressure from the OSCE Minsk group, in particular from Russia and US.  Armenia needs to take the first brave steps and remove its troops from Azerbaijani lands. After this, Turkey will respond.  This will mean that the vicious circle that has plagued to region for almost two decades will begin to be turned into a virtuous one.

T. Teymur
Day.Az