Abandoning privileged partnership with Azerbaijan, Turkey can not acquire status of regional power: Russian political expert

Day.Az: How do you comment on signing of the Turkey-Armenia protocols?

Stanislav Belkovski: This is another fact proving that Turkey strengthens as a regional power. Naturally, to implement plans to strengthen as a regional power, Turkey needed to solve problems with Armenia. Turkey’s acting as a moderator in the process of settling the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Armenian-Azerbaijani relations is also natural.

Q: Will Turkish and Armenian parliaments ratify the protocols?

A: I think that, though with difficulty, but the Turkish-Armenian protocols will be ratified by the parliaments of the two countries. Diplomatic relations between these countries will be resumed, because it is in the interests of elites in both Turkey and Armenia.

Q: Why Turkey-Armenian protocols do not include an item on resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

A: I am sure that Turkey will never betray Azerbaijan. Because declining to support and refusing privileged partnership with Azerbaijan, Turkey can not acquire status of a regional power. The Turkish-Armenian protocols’ lack of any mention of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is attributed to the fact that Turkey needed to sign these protocols after which it would replace the status of a customary state with the status of a regional power by ousting Russia from the niche .

Q: Can one in this case expect fair resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict soon?

A: I think, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will not be resolved in the short term. Because conditions for its solution, which would have been at least two-thirds acceptable for Azerbaijan and Armenia, have not been worked out yet. As to Turkey,  by voicing support for Azerbaijan, it seeks to keep the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict frozen just as it keeps the problem of Northern Cyprus in a frozen state.

Q: But why Russia so quietly watches the process of Turkey’s ousting it from its status as a regional power?

A: We can also speculate in the same manner on why Russia national football team in the same Saturday which saw signing ceremony of the Turkish-Armenian protocols could not oppose Germany's national team, losing to it in its field. In both cases the answer is one - Russia did not have a force to do it.

Q: But why Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan paid a visit to Russia on Oct. 12?

A: It would be strange if, immediately after the signing of Turkish-Armenian protocols, Armenia turned back to Russia. Armenia has too many ties with Russia, purely economic first of all. But, in general, the visit of Armenian president to Russia immediately after the signing of Turkish-Armenian protocols is rather a ritual gesture than estimate of the current relations of Armenia with Russia today. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are well aware that the times when Russia played a decisive role in the South Caucasus region have been left in past.

/Day.Az/