Turkey-Armenia border will be reopened by yearend: political expert

Day.Az: What further steps can be expected from Turkey after the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols? Do you think parliaments of countries will ratify them?

Tofiq Abbasov: I think that the protocols will be ratified both in the Turkish and Armenian parliament.  In the course of developments in this direction both Armenia, Turkey will tell myths about the difficulties which allegedly accompanied signing of the protocols in Switzerland.

In fact, the governments of these countries carefully prepared for this process with the approval of the West and, in principle, they do not realize that full normalization of the situation in the Caucasus needs to consider interests of Azerbaijan. Without this, there will be no stability, atmosphere of cooperation and good neighborly relations in the Caucasus as official circles of Armenia and Turkey and their patrons in the West hope to see. 

There is a need for a comprehensive approach to solving existing problems in the Caucasus. We can not disregard the importance of the fact that Azerbaijan has enough leverage to protect its rights and to influence the situation.

I think that Turkey has listened to the West, which needs to buy gold-rimmed spectacles on the diplomatic front. If we have a close look at how the West is trying to resolve the processes in many painful points of the world, we will see much more negative than positive. Therefore, the White House administration needed to earn peacekeeping glasses and present it to the world community as if it has achieved an enormous breakthrough.

Actually it is not such a big breakthrough, but piecemeal, as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the major conflict in the region, has not been resolved yet. Secondly, parties wishing to accelerate this process believe that after the signing of the protocols and their ratification by the parliaments, the remaining problems will be resolved with the help of a chain reaction. This is self-deception.

Q: How do you think the signing of the protocols will impact settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

A: Since ancient times there is such a saying:  "A road to hell paved with good intentions”. It accurately reflects ins and outs of this process. Turkey intends solve several problems easily including to benefit from energy flows and to seize keys of the Caucasus region. But that does not happen ... At some point, Turkey gave assurances to Azerbaijan in a tactical order while it negotiated a strategic accord with Armenia as well as with Western countries. This is a big mistake.

Geostrategic situation tells it to take into account the interests of a main ally. Otherwise, it could lose its ally, and then the current situation may be reversed. Therefore, I think that Turkey should have insisted that the processes of establishment of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia and the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict proceed in parallel

Everything would be very different now if the protocols on establishment of diplomatic relations between Ankara and Yerevan and withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from occupied Azerbaijani territories had been signed in Switzerland.

The West and Moscow played a crucial role in what Armenia and Turkey decided that they could resolve their own relationships in isolation from other problems in the region. But it may happen so that issues that seem minor to the participants of the process of reconciliation later can  shatter the whole regime of agreements despite the fact that Armenia has retained some of the psychological advantage.

Of course, Turkey was helpful in this regard. It should have done it. Turkish officials have repeatedly said that without taking into account the interests of Azerbaijan opening of borders between Armenia and Turkey will not take place. But now we see that the Turkish side neglects commitments to a strategic partner.

Q: Can the border between Turkey and Armenia be opened by yearend?

A: I think it is also planned. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner very kindly embraced the first step toward reconciliation between the countries and one of the key objectives of the process is just the opening of the borders. Because the West insists on it most of all to breathe life into moribund economic organism of Armenia.

I think that the border will be opened by the yearend and the process of establishing relations between Armenia and Turkey will be accelerated. Otherwise, the whole optimistic entourage could collapse. And all this, I think, will happen without taking into consideration reciprocal steps by Azerbaijan. But this is a topic of another story ...

/Day.Az/