Owner and president of “Georgian Times” media holding and head of “Azri” Strategic Research Center Malkhaz Gulashvili spoke in an interview with Day.Az.
Day.Az: Already a year has passed since the August war between Russia and Georgia in South Ossetia. Is a new war likely to erupt between the countries?Malkhaz Gulashvili: The situation in the zone of the Russian-Georgian conflict once again tense and the parties expect a new war. It seems to me that all conflicting sides are interested in a new confrontation: Russia with South Ossetia - on the one hand, and the United States with Georgia – on the other. Of course, scenario of the situation is very difficult and undesirable for Georgian people, but this is the current geopolitical layout. To get convinced in it, it is enough to recall those events that have occurred in recent times: a visit to Georgia by U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden and the subsequent actions of Russia to deteriorate the situation.
It is possible that a new spiral of confrontation in our region is also linked to the fact that U.S. President Barack Obama is going to dramatically reduce Pentagon expenditures against which a number of prominent American politicians, including Joseph Biden oppose.
Another factor that heated the situation in the region is a provocative statement by the “president of South Ossetia” Eduard Kokoity who said that South Ossetia will require Georgia to return Trusovski Valley. With full responsibility I declare that there is no historical justification for this statement.
Q: To what degree is Georgia likely to regain control over South Ossetia? A: The policy pursued by the Georgian leadership will not help return to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The point is that the Georgian leadership hopes to return to South Ossetia and Abkhazia relying on U.S. aid and the collapse of Russia. I do not know how sober politicians they can count on this? Quite a different case will be if Russia and Georgia will find a common language. I am convinced that if the influential political scientists and experts, as well as representatives of the Georgian and Russian intellectuals discuss the situation soberly, Georgia and Russia will become strategic allies. Alas, the current geopolitical order requires entirely different situation.
Q: How do you comment on the statement by Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tigran Balayan who said that Armenia has never prohibited to choose one or another route to visit South Ossetia and Abkhazia commenting on the recommendations by Belarus and Azerbaijan regarding visits to these republics through the territory of Georgia rather than Russia?A: Armenia has adopted a policy that meets the national interests of this country. One of the objectives of Armenia is the way to the Black Sea through Georgia. Naturally, the achievement of one of Armenia's goals may lead to their new targets. In this regard, I want to note that Armenian population of Abkhazia also had a role in instigating separatist sentiment.
However, now they have become sober and now between Abkhazians and Armenians there is fairly strong confrontation for influence. But on the whole, I regret to have to admit that the policy by the current Georgian leadership “only pours water to the mill” of Armenia.
In general, however, I believe it is high time for international community to undertake the settlement of all conflicts in the Caucasus. This requires a new concept of a peaceful Caucasus, the creation of the security system, which will take into account the interests of all nations in our region and to maintain their territorial integrity.
/Day.Az/