European Voice: France will have to trade in its seat in OSCE Minsk Group

Indeed, Nagorno-Karabakh is probably a more dangerous 'frozen conflict' than those in Moldova and Georgia, the article "Another peace role for the EU" published at the European Voice site says.

According to the article authors, Both sides continue to compete in an arms race, making the region the most heavily militarised in Europe. In both countries, the animosity is very evident, and hate-full propaganda appears each day. Peace remains a distant prospect, with the 'Minsk Group' talks being held under the aegis of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) producing no visible results.

'A war over Nagorno-Karabakh would have devastating regional consequences. It would destroy the region's fragile stability and it would undermine and seriously threaten the security of energy supplies from the Caspian to the international markets, including the prospects of the southern gas corridor connecting the EU gas market with Caspian producers. Turkey and Russia might find themselves supporting opposing sides, while Europe and the US would be hard pressed to intervene. The price of a conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh would be extremely high for the European Union, as it has been in the case of Georgia - and so it is surprising how little attention Europe is giving to the conflict', the authors say and add that while the EU is actively engaged in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transdniester
and now also in Georgia, through the Geneva process, it has no direct role in Nagorno-Karabakh.

There is also a lack of knowledge about the conflict within EU institutions and reluctance on the part of some member states to see the EU become more deeply involved. At the same time, there is growing recognition of the strategic importance of this region, not least in terms of energy security and diversification - the major pipelines from the Caspian to the west are mere 15 km from the ceasefire line, and several pumping stations are exposed and vulnerable to attack. Furthermore, there is a good chance that, if hostilities resumed, the EU would be asked to deal with the aftermath (as was the case in Georgia last year). And, if a peace deal were struck, the EU would be well placed to oversee the deal's implementation, given its experience in other conflicts. It would therefore make sense for the EU to stake out a greater role for itself now.

The EU needs to integrate itself into the Minsk Group. If Europe is to become the main implementer and guarantor of a peace deal, Europe also needs to be a part of the deal- making process. That means
France will have to trade in its seat, and the new EU representative in the Minsk Process would need a clear and strong mandate, with room to negotiate on behalf of the twenty-seven member states.

The EU's new Eastern Partnership cites as its goal stability, security and prosperity in the Eastern Neighbourhood. Without the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict this will never be achievable and the region will remain a ticking time bomb. Therefore the EU needs to show that it has learned its lesson in Georgia and become an active peacemaker in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

/ArmInfo/