Improving Russia-US relations to favor quick settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: analyst of International Crisis Group

As Russia and the United States have been playing important roles supporting the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict through the OSCE Minsk Group, they will continue with even more vigor to encourage conflict resolution, Europe Program Director of International Crisis Group Sabine Freizer believes.

"For a long time there has been the sense that Moscow and Washington are competing for influence in the South Caucasus and because of this neither was deeply committed to a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict," Freizer believes. "Now that relations between the US and the Russian Federation are beginning to improve, the two could cooperate better to facilitate conflict resolution."

During Bush's period, the Russia-US relations have worsened to the level of "cold war". However, the so-called "restart" was announced in the Russia-US relations after President Obama's administration came to power in the White House.

When high level officials, such as the Russian President get directly involved in the negotiations chances for breakthroughs can increase, Freizer said.

Freizer said International Crisis Group has been advocating for the US, Russia and the EU, to raise the seniority and intensify the engagement of their representatives working on the conflict for many years. Freizer hoped that within the new Obama administration the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should rise up on the US foreign policy agenda.

Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. Since then, the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the U.S. - are currently holding the unfruitful peace negotiations.

The war between Georgia and Russia in August 2008 also showed the limitations of employing a confrontational approach, Freizer believes.

Large-scale military operations were launched in South Ossetia on the night of Aug. 8. Georgian troops entered South Ossetia's capital Tskhinvali. Later Russian troops seized the town and drove troops back to Georgia. Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and established diplomatic relations with the territories.

"If a war was ever to start in or around Nagorno-Karabakh it would be much more devastating than the war in Georgia and would have deep regional consequences that would undermine both Moscow and Washington's interests," she said.

Freizer said there will never be a solution to the problem until Armenia and Azerbaijan come to a compromise agreement themselves, but they can benefit from the expertise, knowledge and guarantees of external powers.

The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts.

/Trend News/