Day.Az interview with famous political scientist Eldar Jahangirov.
- What do you expect from the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey, to be held in the framework of the session of the UN General Assembly?- I think that this meeting should be considered in the light of the recent regional events, including South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Turkey's initiative of the Caucasus Cooperation and Stability Platform, the visit of the Turkish leadership to Moscow, Yerevan and Baku, the visit of the US vice-president to the region, the agreement between Putin and Uzbek President in most directions, especially, on European formula of gas prices, Islam Karimov's visit to Azerbaijan and Ilham Aliyev's upcoming visit to Moscow.
It all proves that important systematic events are being formed in the region. The meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the three countries is a next stage. I think, by results of this meeting, the sides will give different comments on the Turkish project of the Caucasus platform and define further steps for the resolution of the conflict. I do not expect anything more from this meeting.
- After returning from his one-day visit to Azerbaijan, President of Turkey Abdullah Gul told reporters in the airport that "Armenia promised to release the occupied lands of Azerbaijan". Can these words be trusted?- The Armenian officials have not rebuffed these words. There are no grounds for which we can not trust him. Merely, I think that this implies the liberation of not all the occupied lands of Azerbaijan but also a part of them. There is nothing new in it, for Armenians do not hide that they consider the regions, adjacent to Nagorno Karabakh as a buffer zone. The return of the lands, adjacent to Nagorno Karabakh, is considered as the first step of the resolution almost within all formats, beginning with the earliest ones until the so-called Madrid principles. The thing is what Armenians will demand in exchange for the return.
By the way, despite the ambiguous reaction of the Azerbaijani community to the visit of the Turkish President to Yerevan, I would like to stress an important element - no one, even Armenians, mentioned the unrecognized "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" as a possible participant of the talks.
- Can Russia prevent the peaceful and fair resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict?- Certainly. Russia has had a dominating influence on all the processes in the Caucasus region since the USSR times. Today Russia has even more. There are numerous ways and technologies for it, beginning from the physical termination of prominent figures (let's recall the striking murder of Zelimkhan
Yandarbiyev in Qatar) until the shooting of talks by different ways: planned information leakage in mass media, spread of damaging information about the negotiators with the further annulling of the whole agenda of talks.
But the most interesting to me is that Russia has sustained sharp image losses. West, in the person of the United States and its allies, made the only correct decision - to put an economic pressure on Russia. The Russia equities market is sustaining a stable decline. The mass outflow of western investments is observed and most joint projects have been suspended. For us, the issue of the return of the occupied lands of a top priority.
After the case with recognition of Kosovo, the United States and West have a motivation of comparing the Karabakh issue to the South Ossetian and Abkhazian ones, that is to build everything on the principle of territorial integrity. Iran is concerned over the internal priorities. Turkey has proposed regional initiatives, which are impossible before the conflict is settled. Russia's motivation in this case is similar to that of the United States: they need to show adherence to international law. After the August events Armenia has been isolated with Azerbaijan on the East, Turkey on the West and unpredictable Iran on the South. Geographical communication with Russia is sharply restricted. Therefore, it is high time for achieving a breakthrough in the Nagorno Karabakh issue.
- We all remember that the attempt of the just resolution of the Nagorno Karanakh conflict led to the replacement of powers in Armenia. Isn't there a threat of such developments now?- There is always such a threat in Armenia with its amusing history of state terrorism.
- What will be the future of the whole South Caucasus region in case Armenians liberate at least the adjacent regions around Nagorno Karabakh?- The resolution of any conflict always implies the reduction of tensions, shifting of military and military and political accents to the economic sector, increase in the volumes of trade and financial cooperation, cultural and humanitarian ties and gradually the growing welfare of the people in all senses. As regards the South Caucasus countries, in the light of the recent events, a sharp political crisis can be expected in Georgia.
/Day.Az/