TODAY.AZ / Politics

Rasim Musabeyov: "In case Georgia wins, arguments for the peaceful resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict will weaken, giving place to military counteraction"

08 August 2008 [14:09] - TODAY.AZ
Day.Az interview with famous Azerbaijani political scientist Rasim Musabeyov.
- How would you comment on the recent events in South Ossetia, particularly, the decision of Georgian officials to settle the conflict by force?

- Russia rendered all assistance to separatists of South Ossetia up to the military and technical support and if it continued further, Georgia would have faced the annexation of Moscow. It is now difficult to say how far the Georgian side will go. The decision of the Georgian officials is too risky. We hope that the Georgian leadership has taken into account all risks and consequences of such a decision.

- How will the victory of Georgian armed forces in restoration of control over the South Ossetia influence Nagorno Karabakh conflict?

- I think in case Georgia wins, arguments for the peaceful resolution of Nagorno Karabakh will weaken, giving place to military counteraction. Peace negotiations are being held with no progress for the past 15 years. Georgians also have had these peace talks for 15 years. In the result Georgia chose the forced way of the conflict resolution. Georgia's actions are a model composition of the resolution of the conflict issue for Azerbaijan. The actions of the Azerbaijani side in the negotiation process will become more radical as they will have more substantiated arguments.

- Do you think in case of the military success of Georgia, Azerbaijan will ponder over the forced way of the resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict...

- First, it is necessary to wait for the completion of the military operation of the Georgian armed forces. We want Georgia to win. Second, it is now timely to recall a well-known saying "si vis pacem, para bellum" (if you wish peace, prepare for war). Armenian occupational forces came to Azerbaijan with arms in their hands, killing civilians. And now it is necessary to release the occupied lands. No, I would not want the resumption of hostilities, bloodshed and victims. Therefore, we should ensure military supremacy which would sober the Armenian leadership.

- Can these two conflicts-the South Ossetian conflict and Nagorno Karabakh be compared? Analysts state that it will not be easy for Azerbaijan to release the occupied lands by force-we will have to deal with Armenians in this case...

- Ossetian armed formations do not fall in comparison with the armed formations of Armenia, deployed in the occupied lands of Azerbaijan. There are about 30,000 Armenian armed formations in Nagorno Karabakh, while in South Ossetia their number just nears 5,000. There is a front line between Azerbaijan and Armenia, beyond which there are no Azerbaijani villages with residents left, while Georgians make up the one third of the settlements in South Ossetia. As you see, the situation differs much.

- Do you think Moscow will undertake open counteraction with Georgia by rendering military assistants to South Ossetian separatists?

- Georgia has risked. The same risk faces Russia as well. Moscow is now unable to restore control over South Ossetia by separate actions, while massive military actions of Russia will be assessed as an aggression against an independent state-Georgia, which may have too serious results for the Russian leadership. The situation is too shaky.


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