Analysts speculate Armenian PM Margarian might have been murdered

Whatever the cause, the politician's death resulted in overnight changes for the fragile Armenian democracy and a host of other issues including the European Community's quest for energy security in the Caucasus region and enforcement of international sanctions aimed at Iran.

With Presidential elections approaching, Margarian was increasingly seen as a viable alternative to the powerful Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian, an ally of current President Robert Kocharian, who is moving toward the completion of his term of office. Both men come from Nagorno Karabakh, an enclave inside the territory of neighboring Azerbaijan. Armenia's armed seizure of this area in the 1990's remains a volatile point of contention with Azerbaijan, a flash point in the Caucasus that continues to destabilize the region and slow down cooperation in economic development.

Prime Minister Margarian assumed office in 2000, following the murder of his predecessor. He had lately leaned toward addressing the consequences of Karabakh's occupation to the Armenian economy. This conflict prevents Armenia, among other things, from enjoying normal relations with powerful neighbors such as Turkey and of course Azerbaijan, specifically precluding the option of Armenia's serving as a transit country for Caspian oil and gas.

Margarian's position conformed with the EU's wishes to resolve the conflict and ensure a higher degree of energy security in the area, a stance strongly opposed by Armenia's President and Defense Minister, both of whom had been guerilla fighters in Karabakh, steadfastly rejecting any compromise with the Azeri demands.

Margarian's position also flew in the face of the current President's policy of energy cooperation with Iran, which often skirted international sanctions and the EU approach to Iran that Margarian also supported. Observers report that Magarian and his family have recently received a spate of threatening phone calls and letters, along with others in his Republican Party of Armenia, demanding his resignation as President and head of the party.

There is also talk in Armenia that Margarian had compromising documents regarding corruption in the armed forces, illicit real estate dealings by top military brass and illegal expenditures by the defense establishment which he intended to make public before the upcoming Parliamentary election scheduled for May 12th. Mass Wire Media Association

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