Why is Azerbaijan irreplaceable? Baku has already responded

The Shusha Global Media Forum, which took place the day before, gathered at a difficult time for the region. Although, if you think about it, there was no period in this region that could be called simple. It's not just about the South Caucasus, but about a broader space full of contradictions and suffering from increased attention from the outside. Another classic of geopolitics, Briton Mackinder, emphasized the geopolitical importance of the so-called "five seas" - the space between the Caspian, Black, Mediterranean, Red Seas and the Persian Gulf. Mackinder wrote in his famous work that "the Caucasus-Caspian region should be viewed in a broader political context."

This broad context has been particularly evident in recent decades. And what is particularly noteworthy is the transformation of the role of Azerbaijan, which is not the largest, strongest, or richest state in the region. Foreign experts are already calling this phenomenon a phenomenon. Its nature is being studied, looking for answers to the question "what is the reason?". Nothing happens by itself, everything has a basis that needs to be sorted out.

A similar question was asked to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the opening of the Shusha Forum. One of the participants asked what it is about our country, its political culture and its leadership that makes it a center for solving the most difficult issues of international politics. How is it that Baku is trusted even by those countries that do not trust each other and no one at all?

The President answered simply. There are no secrets here: it is sincerity and honesty with all parties, it is the absence of second thoughts and the desire to help in all situations where possible, to look for a common language between the parties. As the head of state said, there was a time when we didn't have the opportunity to help, but now we do. Financially, politically, and in other forms. Therefore, Azerbaijan's actions have become a factor in regional policy and its role, at least, is growing across the region.

Based on this growing role of Azerbaijan, every statement of the Azerbaijani leader, I think, was received by both the present and the external audience with special attention. After all, a lot depends on Baku's position on this or that issue in our "five seas". Azerbaijan is not just a small state in the South Caucasus, but a key geopolitical hub, the balance of power on the entire Eurasian continent largely depends on its stability and orientation.

A lot has changed since Mackinder wrote his geography of geopolitics, and the world doesn't look exactly the way he saw its future. There was only one accurate hit, in the role of the South Caucasus. And we are witnessing the strengthening of this role through Azerbaijan's assertion of its positions today.  

"The South Caucasus has changed, and dramatically. And in this case, maybe we can say that the impetus for this was the Second Karabakh War, which shifted a lot of layers that were already considered established and so petrified. And further events in the South Caucasus related to the full restoration of Azerbaijan's sovereignty, related to Armenia's European aspirations, and everything related to this process, of course, in my opinion, dictate the need for a rethink in general by analysts and statesmen in this region as a whole. And without contacts, without feeling the pulse, it will be very difficult to do this, because the old methodologies of perception of the South Caucasus are completely outdated. In other words, this is a completely different region than it was 5 years ago, with new centers, with diverse aspirations again," President Ilham Aliyev said at the opening of the Shusha Media Forum.

The region is just entering the path of consolidation and integration, and each of the countries must find its place. Azerbaijan has already found this place. I found it a long time ago, and all the years after regaining my independence, I tried not to give up my position. It was not easy to fight against attempts to use a small and exhausting country in a state of conflict for alien interests. But Baku succeeded. As the President said in the Shusha, we did not allow ourselves to be involved in geopolitical intrigues, we did not allow any of the external players to use us for their own purposes either against another or it is unclear against whom. Now our neighbors will have to do the same, not in words, but in deeds.

This is a very relevant remark, addressed not so much to our neighbors as to external players who, according to tradition, are trying to use Armenia as a testing ground for their geopolitical interests. Azerbaijan has never allowed itself to be treated like this, Georgia is now making real attempts to regain its sovereignty in foreign policy, and only Armenia has not yet closed its doors to foreign interests.

The latter sometimes takes on completely absurd forms. For example, in the issue of the transit role of States. As you know, although Armenia is located in a critically important region, due to its aggressive policy, it has not been able to take advantage of geography. During the Karabakh conflict, attempts were made to involve it in regional projects, but Baku has always put insurmountable obstacles in front of these attempts. The guardians of the occupying country could not overcome them because Azerbaijan was able to carry out its own ideas without waiting for outside help. No one could forbid him to build pipelines and transport corridors, and by the beginning of the peaceful era, a well-established functional network had already developed in the region, which has become absolutely indispensable in the current geopolitical upheavals.

Characteristically, after the victorious war, Azerbaijan immediately offered Armenia to become part of the international transit. However, instead of supporting Azerbaijan's Zangezur project, external players began to promote Armenia's special role as a transit hub. It was very strange that Nikol Pashinyan's "Crossroads of the World" was seriously discussed in the European Union, when the only real and functional corridor through Armenia could only be the road through Meghri. In the five post-war years, the European partners tried to promote the non-existent role of Armenia and put the already operating hub in the face of Azerbaijan on the back burner. As President Ilham Aliyev said, when Armenia was presented as almost the main transport hub of the region, this, of course, raised big questions. "A country that has no experience at all as a transit country suddenly becomes, it turns out, the main hub. It's just not clear what goes through it... This bias was, of course, inspired by political actions and attempts at poaching. That's it, everyone should get away from it and not consider the South Caucasus as an arena of geopolitical struggle," the head of state said.

It's happening right now. More precisely, it happened until Baku took certain measures. Namely, he made it clear that it was not serious to discuss transport connectivity issues without his participation. This is a very serious topic, and it was not by chance that the President raised it at the opening of the Shusha Forum.

At the end of June, a number of events related to the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) took place in Brussels. The European Commission held a conference in Brussels at which the Connectivity Agenda Platform was launched. The meeting was attended by ministers from Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Turkiye, Uzbekistan and Ukraine. As you can see, representatives of Azerbaijan and Georgia, the key countries on the Middle Corridor, did not participate in the discussions. Not because they weren't invited. We will not speak for Georgia, but the Azerbaijani side, by its absence from the event, tried once again to remind European partners of what priorities they should adhere to. Baku doesn't need to prove anything to anyone - it has already proved everything to everyone. Azerbaijan's role is indisputable and irreplaceable. It's elementary - no matter what corridors are built across the Caspian, they will still pass through our country. It is possible, if you really strain your imagination, to bypass Georgia through Armenia, but bypassing Azerbaijan is out of the question. Therefore, the accents that the Europeans, who were fighting for control of Armenia with Russia, tried to place looked, at least, strange.

During the conference in Brussels, a memorandum was signed with the Armenian side on financing the development of the Armenian highway network within the framework of the Crossroads of the World. Meanwhile, the EU's statements about its readiness to invest in the restoration of Nakhchivan's railways within the framework of TRIPP remained words. Not yet, anyway.

By his absence in Brussels at the presentation of the new platform, and then at the event on the Middle Corridor in the European Parliament, Baku made it clear that he would not play these games. The head of the European Commission immediately visited Azerbaijan. Moreover, Ursula von der Leyen announced plans to hold the next Conference on Regional Connectivity in Baku.

In Shusha, the President of Azerbaijan declared excellent relations between Baku and the European Commission. And these relations were like this even during the times of aggravation with the EU due to the pro-Armenian lobbying of certain groups in the European Union. Therefore, it is not difficult to get processes back on track in this format. There is mutual understanding and mutual interest.

And in general, without excessive modesty, we note that where, if not in Baku, to gather to discuss issues of East-West transport connectivity.

Baku is not at all against the development of Armenia's road network, but it will not allow geopolitical games to be played around the topic of the transit role of the South Caucasus. In the future, when the final peace is established, Armenia will also become part of the unified transport scheme of the region. In the meantime, as the President of Azerbaijan said, "a sober assessment of the potential of each country, its economic, political, military, demographic and other potentials is important so that the accents are correctly placed and there is no disappointment that they have been put on the wrong track again."

Unfortunately, the West has never been able to bet on that. The EU always put Armenia on a dummy, and Azerbaijan had to deal with all the issues on its own. And the results of this work have become a real salvation for international logistics today.

Baku does not owe its successes to anyone, and at the same time, everyone needs it, no matter how hard some try to hide it.