Three countries, one course: how the alliance of Baku, Ankara and Tbilisi is strengthening

The 10th anniversary meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkiye and Georgia, held in Istanbul on Monday, is a much more important event than it might seem at first glance. Formally, this is a regular meeting of the trilateral cooperation mechanism in force since 2012. However, in the current geopolitical conditions, this format is actually becoming one of the most important components of the new architecture of transport, energy and economic security in Eurasia.

Against the background of the ongoing transformation of the global economy, growing tensions between the leading centers of power and changes in traditional logistics routes, the South Caucasus is becoming one of the most sought-after regions in the world, where the interests of Europe and Asia intersect.

Following the meeting in Istanbul, the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkiye and Georgia signed the Istanbul Declaration. The document was signed by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Georgian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Maka Bochorishvili and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov.

According to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, in the declaration the sides confirmed mutual support for sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of borders, stressed the importance of strengthening cooperation in the fields of transport, energy and trade. Special attention was paid to the role of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Southern Gas Corridor pipelines in Europe's energy security, as well as the importance of the Middle Corridor and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway line. The sides also did not forget to emphasize the importance of regional peace, security and stability for the full potential of the South Caucasus.

The implementation of all the tasks outlined in the declaration largely depends on the cooperation and efforts of Azerbaijan, Turkiye and Georgia.

When the format was just being created, the South Caucasus was not yet perceived in its current role. It was considered just a small region, for which the centers of power fought with alternating success, having no voice and unable to make drastic decisions. However, there have been many changes in the Eurasian space in recent years. Unfortunately, they were negative, but it was precisely these processes that made it possible to demonstrate the capabilities of a region that has so far been little noticed by external players. The end of the Karabakh conflict, in addition to geographical advantages, added stability to the South Caucasus, further raising it in the preference rating.

The South Caucasus and its connection with Turkiye proved to be an indispensable alternative to both the northern and southern Eurasian routes. The Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, TMTM), which was previously considered only as a reserve player against the background of the Europe-Asia corridor through Russia and international maritime corridors, has now come to the fore. With the outbreak of Russia's war with Ukraine and especially in connection with the recent conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Suffice it to recall that in the first ten days of the war against Iran alone, the demand for container shipments along the Middle Corridor increased by 450-500 percent compared to the same period last year. Due to the sharp increase in cargo traffic in the ports of Aktau and Baku, the cargo handling time has tripled. The demand for BTK has increased by 35 percent in the current geopolitical crisis. In this regard, the launch of the Georgian section of the railway corridor is very important, as well as Turkiye's accelerated construction of a continuation of the BTK on its territory.

Azerbaijan, Turkiye and Georgia are the main states that ensure the functioning of the main section of the Middle Corridor. They maintain East-West connectivity in the era of the breakdown of traditional logistics routes.

This format attracts attention because the participating countries are engaged in practical activities. Every meeting has practical consequences. Unlike many regional platforms dominated by political declarations, cooperation between Azerbaijan, Turkiye and Georgia is based on specific infrastructure projects. This is very important in an environment where there is no time for long discussions. Decisions need to be made quickly and implemented quickly. The world is changing, and the advantageous geography of our region gives it a chance.

The combined economies of Azerbaijan, Turkiye and Georgia currently exceed $1.5 trillion, and trade between them is showing steady growth. Turkiye is one of the largest trading partners of Azerbaijan and Georgia, and Azerbaijan remains one of the largest investors in the Turkish economy. There is no need to even talk about the importance of partnership with Azerbaijan and Turkiye for Georgia.

Foreign analysts recognize that the Azerbaijan-Turkiye-Georgia format is one of the few examples of successful regional cooperation. It is stable, all problems within it are solved quickly, and decisions are made regardless of the foreign policy situation. Turkiye is striving to strengthen its position in the South Caucasus, and it is succeeding. Azerbaijan is the initiator and driving force behind all projects involving its partners in the format. For Georgia, participation in the trilateral format provides additional guarantees of economic stability, which contributes to strengthening its political independence.

In short, the Azerbaijan-Turkiye-Georgia trilateral format is gradually shaping the new economic geography of the South Caucasus. Perhaps in the future, the format will become four-sided, when Armenia will be able to join it after the establishment of final peace.

By the way, Istanbul also talked about the TRIPP project, which is part of the Zangezur Corridor, which will pass through Armenia.