Once again about the cave thinking of the Armenian opposition

The game continues to play on the peculiarities of the mentality of the Armenian people, distorted by decades of misanthropic propaganda. If the current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is trying to open a gap for fresh air in this ossified education, the revanchist opposition, on the contrary, uses these propaganda perversions to gain access to the "mind and heart" of the Armenian voter.

The Armenian society, raised in a cave-dwelling hatred of Azerbaijanis, is at a loss caused by the prospect of Azerbaijani refugees returning to Armenia. In fact, such an issue is not being discussed with Yerevan, it is not being raised by Baku as a condition for signing peace. In Azerbaijan, they generally do not consider such an opportunity as an emergency. Armenian society is not yet ready to live alongside other nations, and the mono-national environment is a comfort zone for Armenians who are concerned about their "selectivity" and "greatness." Baku will never allow hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis to be subjected to new trials in Armenia, risking their lives for political purposes. The indigenous population of Armenia experienced ethnic cleansing, genocide, and deportation in the late 1980s. The children and grandchildren of refugees should not have to go through the same thing. And the Armenian society has not yet been cured so that it can count on the safety of the Azerbaijani population.

It will become clear on June 7 how much Azerbaijan can trust Armenia. The question is not that if Pashinyan wins, 300,000 Azerbaijanis will return to their historical lands on the same day. The issue is to create an atmosphere of trust. So far, there is a revanchist pre-election orgy in Armenia, widely supported in the media and on social networks, and it is difficult to say what percentage of the population is in the zone of sobriety, since only opposition hysteria is heard.

Anticipating the outrage on the other hand, let's say right away that the elections in Armenia are not an internal matter of the Armenians themselves, because the future of our region depends on their results. If Armenia were located somewhere on the Hindustan peninsula, this would not really concern us, but the prospect of an escalation of a new conflict in the event of a change of power and the arrival of revanchists is very high. Even if the current opposition slows down after winning the elections, the peace process will be halted, as it will face new claims, conditions and demands from the Armenian side. Judging by the statements of the leaders of the revanchist opposition, Azerbaijan owes Armenia something and is not giving it back.

The revanchists are building their campaign on slander against the Azerbaijani people, on theses directly related to the interests of Azerbaijan. So we don't interfere in our own business. The elections in Armenia are directly our business. The revanchists themselves made the elections to the Armenian parliament an issue of the geopolitics of the South Caucasus and included them in the sphere of interests of Azerbaijan with their statements.

Samvel Karapetyan uses the factor of inexplicable hatred of Azerbaijanis more than anyone else and very actively. Even Kocharyan is more restrained. Karapetyan, on the other hand, seized on the theme of "the return of 300,000 Azerbaijanis" and made it the main feature of his election campaign. The main thesis is that Pashinyan wants to return the Azerbaijanis, but he, Samvel, will not allow this for anything. In other words, Armenians can sleep in peace - they won't see a single non-Armenian person in the neighborhood if they vote for him.

In one of his recent campaign addresses, the Russian billionaire stated that "300,000 Azerbaijanis are already preparing to invade Armenia, buying land and houses. They know that villages, schools, and kindergartens are being liberated for them. Our country is under serious threat." After scaring the Armenians, Karapetyan promised that he would put an end to this by passing laws "prohibiting Azerbaijanis from buying land and houses in Armenia."

The terry-cloth Nazism in the speeches of the Russian billionaire, in theory, should alienate voters. But we're talking about Armenia. On the contrary, such promises attract disoriented masses there. Surely, there is a part of the population that is aware of the insanity of such statements, but its voices are not heard. Karapetyan does not rely on this stratum. It is noteworthy that at first he talked more about the transformation of Armenia into New Vasyuki, promised Armenians heavenly pretzels and milk rivers in jelly banks. Apparently, these arguments did not touch the depths of the electorate's consciousness. The Armenian society is so educated that it considers social and economic well-being to be the last item on the list of what Armenia needs. Armenians have been convinced for decades that the main thing they need is foreign lands. They'll get them and then they'll heal. The Armenian society has been taught to believe that the mono-nationality and mono-confessional nature of the country is a blessing won by the blood of "heroes", and the slogan "Armenia for Armenians" is not Nazism, but the highest manifestation of patriotism.

In the fog of such propaganda, Armenia has existed since the late 80s of the last century. When the naive asked the question "why are we not living well if we have already captured Karabakh?", they were told: wait a little longer - the golden age will soon come. And two generations grew up thinking that miracles were about to begin. Meanwhile, Armenia had become a dead end in the region, an isolated, dim space where a rapidly shrinking population was stewing in its own juice. The catastrophic defeat in the Second Karabakh War served as some kind of awakening. It will soon become clear to what extent this glimmer has retained its power.

Interestingly, Samvel Karapetyan, promising Armenians laws prohibiting Azerbaijanis from buying land and houses, knows that he is repeating the example of the German Nazis? In September 1933, the "Law on Hereditary Farms" was passed in Nazi Germany. This law became part of the ideology of "Blood and Soil" (Blut und Boden) and directly prohibited Jews from owning agricultural land and farming. According to the law, the status of a "peasant" (Bauer) could only be obtained by German citizens who were able to prove the "purity of their blood" (absence of Jewish ancestors).

Does it remind you of anything?

In turn, Nikol Pashinyan accused the opposition of trying to revive the old revanchist agenda by using the theme of the return of Azerbaijanis.

As you know, Samvel Karapetyan demands that the Prime Minister publicly promise that 300,000 Azerbaijanis will never return to Armenia. Answering a question from journalists, Pashinyan stated that yes, this would not happen under his rule. But he also stressed that those who speak most about the return of Azerbaijanis to Karabakh are against the return of Azerbaijanis. Meanwhile, these issues are interrelated.

Yes, Nikol Pashinyan confirmed, the Azerbaijanis will not return to Armenia. Just like the Armenians will not return to Azerbaijan. The Karabakh issue is closed and will not continue, the Armenian Prime Minister said. According to him, there will be no topic of returning to Karabakh, there will be no topic of returning to Nakhchivan, there will be no topic of returning to Baku, there will be no topic of returning to Sumgayit, there will be no topic of returning to Ganja. "This is an absurd topic, this is a topic of conflict, not a topic of peace," Pashinyan said.

He called the opposition the three-headed party of war, which wants to create a conflict situation, bring these two topics to a clash, and thus reanimate the conflict.

Revanchists seeking power cannot fail to understand that the issue of the return of Azerbaijanis to Armenia will be updated every time they try to update the topic of the return of Armenians to Karabakh. It's inevitable. Even if they find sympathy in the face of some patrons and allies, it will not help to avoid the inevitability of a mirror solution to the issue of the return of Azerbaijanis. Karapetyan, Kocharyan and others are deceiving their flock. Everyone wants to get the votes of the separatists, but they don't think that they are driving themselves into a dead end. During the period following the voluntary departure of Armenians from the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, numerous attempts were made to force Baku to open the doors for the mass return of Armenians. Neither the Powers, nor international organizations, nor human rights and Christian NGOs have succeeded. The pressure was very strong, containing elements of blackmail and threats. Has anything changed for Karabakh Armenians after that? Yes, it has changed - they had to get up from the suitcases they were sitting on, waiting for their return soon, and start learning how to live in Armenia, with which they dreamed of "reuniting."

We have no illusions that the issue of the return of Azerbaijanis to their lands in Armenia will ever become the subject of international discussions. It is worth recalling the opinion expressed by the former EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Toivo Klaar. When leaving office, he stated in a farewell interview that Azerbaijan has some obligations for the return of Armenians. As for the return of Azerbaijanis, for Klaar these are "completely different issues that should not be confused." He suggested considering the issue of the return of Azerbaijanis to their lands in the second place, along with the issue of the return of Armenians to Baku. "But this is a completely different issue than the specific issue of the Karabakh Armenians," the European official said.

Two years ago, when this position was outlined, it caused a surge of enthusiasm in Armenia. But the enthusiasm soon passed, because the issue is unsolvable without Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan agrees to discuss it only in conjunction with the return of Azerbaijanis to Zangezur. As many Armenians will return to Karabakh, the same number of Azerbaijani refugees will have to return to Western Zangezur under similar security guarantees, with the restoration of property rights, ensuring all social and other living conditions. There are no other options.

The "relocants" from Karabakh are hanging their ears and believe that Karapetyan will be able to buy them a return on Armenian terms, will be able to ensure the deployment of some observers and peacekeepers on the sovereign Azerbaijani territory who will ensure that the Armenians feel good and comfortable. We can assure you with all responsibility that this will not happen. If Yerevan insists under the new authorities, involves the diaspora and the lobby in organizing relevant campaigns, and raises the issue from international platforms, it will lose all the positive developments that have been achieved since August last year.

If Karapetyan, Kocharyan, Tatoyan and others really think about Armenia, they should have the courage and honestly tell their voters: there will be no topic of returning to Karabakh, there will be no topic of returning to Nakhchivan, there will be no topic of returning to Baku, there will be no topic of returning to Sumgayit, there will be no topic of returning to Ganja.

It's going to be difficult, but it's fair.