Moscow-Yerevan dialogue and nuances of big geopolitics

The controversy between Vladimir Putin and Nikol Pashinyan has become a notable episode in the current dynamics of Russian-Armenian relations, but its significance goes far beyond the bilateral dialogue. In a broader context, it reflects the increasing complexity of the geopolitical configuration in the South Caucasus, where the interests of Russia, the West and regional players intersect.

Against the background of what is happening, it is important to take into account that Moscow and Yerevan have been building close economic and energy ties for a long time. Russia remains Armenia's key partner in a number of areas: natural gas supplies are carried out on preferential terms, and trade between the two countries is showing steady growth, exceeding the $6 billion mark. The re-export factor also plays a significant role, thanks to which Armenia is integrated into broader trade and economic chains.

Thanks to Russian re-exports, Armenia demonstrated the highest economic growth rates in the world during the first three years of the war in Ukraine. However, last year Yerevan actually refused to re-export Russian gold and precious stones to the UAE. As a result, Armenian exports to the UAE fell by almost 70 percent. And this is a big loss, considering that in 2024, imports from Russia more than doubled, and exports to the UAE increased by almost 7 times. After investigations of re-export schemes were published in the Western media, Yerevan decided to abandon such an instrument of economic growth.

In the context of a gradual "divorce" from Russia, Armenia is increasing its trade turnover with the European Union. In 2025, the foreign trade turnover with the EAEU countries amounted to $ 8 billion (a decrease of 37 percent), with the EU countries - $ 2.5 billion (an increase of more than 7 percent). In addition, the issue of the "Electric Grids of Armenia", operated by Samvel Karapetyan's company, as well as the issue of the Russian concession for Armenian railways, are on the agenda of the Armenian authorities. Armenia is striving for change in both directions.

At the same time, by paying a visit to Moscow, Nikol Pashinyan wants to show that he is not going to break off relations. At a meeting with Vladimir Putin, the Armenian Prime Minister said this: Yerevan knows that membership in both the EAEU and the EU is impossible, but it will combine these two agendas as long as possible. When it becomes impossible, Armenia will make a decision.

Meanwhile, Moscow, apparently, would like Yerevan to decide now. At the meeting, Putin persistently explained to the guest that membership in the two structures was impossible not even for political reasons, but for economic reasons. He also recalled the significant difference in the price of Russian gas for Europe and for Armenia. While gas prices in Europe already exceed $600 per 1,000 cubic meters, Russia sells gas to Armenia at $177.5 per 1,000 cubic meters, Vladimir Putin pointedly reminded.

In 2025, the trade turnover between Russia and Armenia amounted to 6.4 billion dollars. For comparison, it is 4.9 billion with Azerbaijan. These figures were announced by the Russian president at a meeting with Pashinyan.

Economists do not dispute that the traditional and close EAEU market is more interesting and important for Armenia. When we talk about the EAEU market, we mean, first of all, the Russian one. And here the issue of priorities arises for Armenia. It is a difficult choice between economic and political interests. The trend towards diversification of Yerevan's foreign policy is becoming more and more noticeable. Armenia is stepping up contacts with Western countries and institutions, which is perceived as part of a broader strategy of balancing between different centers of power. This process, in turn, inevitably leads to discussions about the future of allied relations with Russia and the limits of a possible maneuver in foreign policy. Pashinyan is acting cautiously, trying not to burn down old bridges until new ones are built. Maintaining the balance would be beneficial for Armenia, but it could be disadvantageous for Russia and the European Union themselves. In any case, the rhetoric of the parties at the meeting makes it clear that Moscow does not intend to share its former ally with anyone on equal terms. This is geopolitics. As they say, nothing personal.

How the processes will develop will become clear after the parliamentary elections in Armenia. Will current trends continue? It depends on the domestic political context. If Nikol Pashinyan retains power, the western trend will become even more noticeable. If pro-Russian forces come to power, Yerevan will begin to restore relations with Moscow in full.

In the logic of competition between the West and Russia for influence over Armenia, there is an increase in political tension in the country, and foreign policy rhetoric is becoming part of the domestic political competition. In this sense, the dialogue that took place in Moscow can be considered not only as an element of interstate relations, but also as a factor influencing electoral processes. Noteworthy here is Vladimir Putin's diplomatic remark that Russia "has a lot of friends in Armenia... and there are many political forces that are pro-Russian." And Russia would like them to have the opportunity to participate in the elections. "Some, I know, are in prison, despite the fact that they have a Russian passport."

Let's explain that we are talking about Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, against whom a criminal case has been opened in Yerevan under articles on calls to overthrow the government and financial fraud. Karapetyan came to Yerevan from Moscow to organize a campaign in support of the Armenian church and made anti-government appeals. The party he created nominated Karapetyan as a candidate for prime Minister, while the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia does not allow a citizen of another country to participate in plebiscites. Despite this, Karapetyan is campaigning and presenting an election program.

There is an opinion that Samvel Karapetyan is a creature of Moscow. The fact that the Russian president put in a good word for him confirms these assumptions to a certain extent. And it is particularly noteworthy that this was done publicly, and not in a one-on-one conversation between the two leaders. 

Anyway, the upcoming elections in Armenia are already being viewed by external actors as a tool of the geopolitical game. And not only Moscow has its own interest here. In mid-March, the head of EU diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, stated that the European Union, at the request of Armenia, would send a special rapid reaction group to assist in countering hybrid threats ahead of the elections in the country. No one doubts that "countering hybrid conditions" involves taking measures to prevent the victory of pro-Russian forces in the elections.

So June will be hot in Armenia. Including on the foreign policy front.

As for Putin's remark, Pashinyan responded to it no less diplomatically, saying that only those citizens who exclusively have an Armenian passport can participate in the elections, "that is, with all due respect, according to the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia, people with a Russian passport cannot be either candidates for deputies or candidates for Prime Minister.ministers."

In the geopolitical game, the European side is more restrained than the Russian side. This is not due to the "Nordic" disposition, but to the current policy of Yerevan. Yerevan is leaning towards the Western vector, and the EU does not need to try very hard. Hence, the West's failure to use the traditional instrument of democracy and human rights in its relations with Armenia. Not because these rights are not violated in Armenia, but because there is no need to use the tool, since Yerevan is already following the course needed by the West.

Nevertheless, despite the great geopolitical game, the wishes and interests of external players, Armenia has before its eyes the example of Azerbaijan, which has proved that only a course towards an independent and balanced foreign policy can bring success. Baku consistently builds pragmatic relations with various centers of power based on national interests and aspirations for sustainable development. Such a model of behavior in the context of increasing geopolitical turbulence is becoming an important element of the regional balance.

The established peace has also opened up an opportunity for Armenia to assert its sovereignty, to become a self-sufficient unit that does not seek any external associations. Yerevan's all-too-visible pro-European aspirations are forcing it to slow down relations with Russia, just as in the old days Armenia's pro-Russian policy knocked Western interests out of the country's foreign policy field.

Nikol Pashinyan values relations with Baku. And on occasion, it definitely demonstrates. This can be seen from the map of real Armenia pinned on the lapel of his jacket even at official meetings, and, most importantly, from the unequivocal rejection of the Karabakh movement. He loudly announced the latter in Moscow. During the dialogue with the President of the Russian Federation, the Armenian Prime Minister stated that the established peace has a positive impact on Armenia's relations with Russia. Thus, the opening of a direct railway connection with the Russian Federation "strengthens our traditional economic ties, and this strengthens our ties within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union."

The ongoing controversy between Moscow and Yerevan is not an isolated diplomatic episode and should be viewed through the prism of the current dynamics of geopolitical processes. The growing global rivalry around the South Caucasus is becoming more noticeable as its geopolitical importance increases. Under these conditions, Yerevan's relations with Moscow will affect the region in the same way as Yerevan's relations with Brussels. Therefore, our neighbor must be very attentive. And do not forget to look at Azerbaijan from time to time. Baku has a lot to learn.