Armenia-Turkiye: Yerevan is making an old mistake again

An interesting correspondence discussion arose between the Foreign Ministers of Turkiye and Armenia. She deserves attention.

Speaking in parliament the other day, Turkish Minister Hakan Fidan said that Turkiye is ready to normalize relations with Armenia when Baku and Yerevan sign a final peace agreement. Fidan made it very clear that if the Turkish-Armenian normalization takes place before the signing of peace, then the main reason why Armenia should sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan will be eliminated. "Therefore, there is a possibility that we will face a frozen conflict in the region. We don't want that," said Hakan Fidan.

Recently, official Yerevan has often made statements that the issue of opening borders with Turkiye is almost resolved, the parties are actively discussing and demonstrating mutual understanding. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said earlier that it was only a matter of time. However, the statement of the Turkish Foreign Minister says that not everything is as simple as the Armenian side would like to think. The latter expected that with the establishment of a dialogue with Baku, it would automatically solve all problems with Ankara. As it turned out, Ankara continues to adhere to the previous opinion, which is as follows: solve all the problems with Azerbaijan, and we will open the border.

We can agree with Nikol Pashinyan when he says that the clear signs of peace are that there has been no shooting on the border for almost two years, and the parties are discussing the delimitation and launch of communications. Of course, all this is true. But there is a fundamental question that determines how strong this beautiful and inspiring superstructure will be and how long it will last. In a situation of "neither war nor peace," recent achievements, no matter how good they may be, may begin to crack.

Azerbaijan is making steps forward not out of altruism, but in order to speed up the solution of the main tasks, first of all, the signing of a peace treaty that will put an end to all Armenian claims to Azerbaijani lands once and for all and ensure lasting peace for future generations. One word from the current Armenian authorities is not enough here. Guarantees are needed, and Armenian legislation should provide them. Pashinyan postpones amendments to the Constitution and the implementation of the Zangezur Corridor for the period after the parliamentary elections. This means that we should not expect these issues to be resolved until the second half of next year. What does it mean? This means that the signing of the peace treaty is also postponed. Official Baku has repeatedly stressed that the presence of claims in the Basic Law of the Republic of Armenia on the territory of Azerbaijan (as well as Turkiye) creates obstacles to the conclusion of a guaranteed peace. Our country cannot sign peace in conditions when these claims are constitutionally confirmed in Armenia and constitutionally prohibited from changes.

This has already been said so many times that we will not go into details once again.

The next postponement of the implementation of the Zangezur Corridor project, called TRIPP after the Washington meeting, is also an obstacle to speeding up the peace process. Nikol Pashinyan has already announced that construction will begin after the elections. In his statement, Hakan Fidan made it clear that the Turkish border will open after the Armenian elections. And this is absolutely true.

Armenia, which has been left unpunished for its crimes thanks to Baku's far-sighted approach to the region's future, has decided that it can expect to receive more than it gives away.

Let's take a look. So far, all the steps taken by Yerevan have been taken under pressure and in light of the lack of room for maneuver. Armenia could not help but return four villages last spring, because then it would have lost more. She also agreed to restore communications through Meghri only after the American side joined the pressure. As a gesture of goodwill in response to this forced but correct step by Yerevan, Baku opened transit to Armenia through its territory. As a response, Nikol Pashinyan suggested that Azerbaijan use the highway running from Turkiye to the Azerbaijani border for transit to Turkiye. Both of these borders are currently closed to Armenia. If Pashinyan hoped to speed up the opening of the border with Turkiye in this way, then the hopes are unlikely to be fulfilled. Firstly, because Baku did not appreciate the "gift". Baku expects Yerevan to accelerate the implementation of the Zangezur project, or, if someone likes it better, TRIPP. He does not need any other roads through Armenia.

And the second reason was outlined by the Turkish Foreign Minister himself, speaking in parliament.

Armenian journalists have asked Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan to comment on Fidan's words.

To be fair, Mirzoyan used all his diplomatic skills to avoid saying anything superfluous. But he's wrong about the most important thing. Throughout the years of the conflict, the Armenian side has maintained that the Karabakh conflict and normalization with Turkiye are unrelated processes. From this conviction, "football diplomacy" was born, which ended in nothing, as the processes turned out to be connected even more than Yerevan wanted to think.

Armenian diplomacy makes the same mistake today. Yerevan must realize the existence of these cause-and-effect relationships. Turkiye once closed the border due to the Armenian aggression against its sister country, but for thirty years it has not opened it, despite serious pressure on Ankara from both the west and the east. The region is stable now, there is no conflict anymore, but there is also no officially signed peace. All that the Armenian side needs to do is to remove all remaining obstacles on the way to signing a peace treaty. They have been repeatedly voiced by official Baku.

Mirzoyan is completely right: the establishment of diplomatic relations with Turkiye and the opening of the border are important for Armenia, as is the further institutionalization of the established peace with Azerbaijan. In Azerbaijan, they generally believe that Pashinyan's team, as Mirzoyan says, is making sincere efforts. But we expect concrete results. In the direction of unjustifiably prolonged implementation of the Zangezur corridor, in the direction of removing toxic provisions from the Armenian Constitution, mainly hindering the conclusion of peace. When all this happens, all issues with Turkiye will be resolved by themselves.

Azerbaijan is more interested than many others in the early institutionalization of peace in the South Caucasus. He has many plans and projects, he looks to the future and does not make it dependent on the past. This approach is an incredible window of opportunity for Armenia. We've had enough conversations, it's time to finally get down to business.