Road exchange and its subtleties for Baku and Yerevan

"From now on, we are ready to ensure the passage of trucks from Turkiye to Azerbaijan and in the opposite direction through the territory of Armenia. The passage can be ensured along the Margara-Yeghnadzor-Sisian-Goris route," the Armenian Prime Minister said.

These decisions were Yerevan's response to Azerbaijan's lifting of restrictions on the transportation of goods for Armenia through its territory. President Ilham Aliyev announced this decision in Kazakhstan. It is no coincidence that Kazakh grain will be the first cargo for Armenia to pass through Azerbaijani roads for the first time in thirty years.

Azerbaijan has always been the most convenient and profitable transit country for Armenia. Therefore, when the roads were closed due to Armenian aggression, the country found itself in a very difficult situation. When announcing Yerevan's retaliatory move, Pashinyan described it as a "historic event marking the first step towards overcoming the RA blockade."

The enthusiasm of the Armenian Prime Minister cannot be ignored, but Pashinyan should choose his words carefully. The term "blockade" is inappropriate in this context. Armenia was not under a blockade; it was in isolation due to its aggressive policies and unwillingness to make amends. Of the four borders, only two were closed. These closures were due to objective reasons stemming from Yerevan's actions. Armenia had access through Iran and Georgia. No one was stopping her from trading and exchanging with the outside world. On the other hand, it was Azerbaijan and Turkey that Armenia needed to effectively and profitably integrate into the Eurasian space. Neither Iran nor Georgia could provide this.

So the word "blockade" is completely inappropriate here, and it even diminishes the significance of what the Armenian Prime Minister said, creating a certain background. In general, Pashinyan's government needs to get rid of the clichés of traditional propaganda. These clichés were aimed at creating an image of a victim, while Armenia is not a victim in the processes that have taken place in the South Caucasus over the past thirty-five years. Armenia has been the cause of all these troubles, including those of its own people.

Although we seem to have become friends, we should not assume that the conflict and the Armenian occupation will be forgotten or archived for the sake of good relations with our neighbor.

It is also unrealistic to think that Azerbaijan will agree to replace the Zangezur project with alternative options that Yerevan has already proposed. The main thing that Azerbaijan needs from Armenia is the opening of the road through Meghri. More specifically, its restoration. We are pleased to hear from Nikol Pashinyan that active work is currently being carried out with the United States to implement the TRIPP project. The Armenian Prime Minister mentioned the challenges associated with the project, but promised that they would be discussed and resolved in the near future.

While the Armenian side is looking for solutions, Azerbaijan continues to move forward. Azerbaijan has already agreed to use its railways for the transit of Russian products to Armenia. This was announced by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk to journalists. Currently, the railway authorities are resolving issues related to the start of transit. As we can see, this is Baku's second practical step. It is a practical step. 

After Russian cargo ships start sailing to Armenia from Russia and probably in the opposite direction as well, the Armenian side will be able to forget about the problems of Upper Lars. For decades, Armenian carriers have been struggling to deliver cargo to and from Russia, spending half a year at the problematic border crossing on the Georgian-Russian border. Russia is Armenia's main trading partner. Additionally, Yerevan has been promising Iran for many years that it will become the gateway to the EAEU, and now it can finally fulfill this promise. Armenia will only be able to enter the EAEU space after the launch of the Zangezur corridor, the TRIPP project.

To be honest, Azerbaijan doesn't really need transit through Armenia to Turkiye. What Azerbaijan needs from Armenia is transit to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. This is the main thing that Azerbaijan expects from Armenia. The positive developments that have begun since Washington are based on this logic. If Armenia suddenly changes its mind or takes too long to resolve the issue, it could affect the positive momentum, which would not benefit anyone. This is especially true for Armenia itself. After all, she is already benefiting from the opening of the transit.  

As for Pashinyan's proposal, the route from the Turkish border to the Azerbaijani border via Margara, Yeghnadzor, Sisian, and Gori takes four and a half hours. This is significantly faster than cargo transportation through Georgia. However, there is a significant drawback. This is a road that cannot compete with rail transportation in terms of volume. The volumes transported along the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars route cannot be transported through Margara-Yeghnadzor-Sisian-Goris, even if it were a multi-lane modern highway. This is not even a multi-lane modern highway, but an old road that needs to be expanded and adapted for international cargo transportation. In addition, the road goes through mountains and overpasses, which can be challenging for cargo caravans. The route also faces difficult terrain at the Azerbaijani border. According to experts, the proposed route for Azerbaijan is not suitable for cargo transportation. The Gyumri-Inzhevan-Gazakh road would be more suitable, but it requires reconstruction due to the lack of asphalt in some areas. So the only suitable route is the road through Meghri. And the Armenian side should focus all its efforts on this route if it wants the road exchange to be equal.

 Pashinyan has proposed what he currently has available. In general, Armenia's road network leaves much to be desired. Nikol Pashinyan himself admits that the route he has proposed is the only option that can be implemented right now. However, this does not mean that Azerbaijan will immediately use this route to avoid offending its neighbors.  

There is another point. Transit to Turkiye via Georgia is safe. The route proposed by Pashinyan, even if we forget about the technical aspects, is 277 kilometers across the territory of a country with ambiguous sentiments in society. The news about the transit to Armenia through Azerbaijan did not cause a violent negative reaction in the Azerbaijani society, but it raised a wave of indignation and rejection in the Armenian society. It would seem that it should have been the other way around. This is also a serious issue that Nikol Pashinyan will have to resolve.

Therefore, it is difficult to talk about the return launch of the route right now. Although the desire to respond to good with good is certainly commendable from the point of view of bilateral relations. Yerevan's response and the Armenian Prime Minister's genuine enthusiasm indicate that the process is underway. The momentum should continue and develop, even if there is currently no practical benefit for Azerbaijan from the Armenian side's actions. For now, the Armenian side is benefiting from the exchange of steps. We will be able to say that the exchange has truly taken place only when the construction of the Zangezur corridor begins.

Nevertheless, at this stage, political goals and objectives take precedence over economic ones. The primary goal is to strengthen peace and the ties that have been established between the two leaders. The roads will follow.