COP29 give an impetus to the salvation of the Caspian Sea

On Monday, on the sidelines of the 29th session of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29), a meeting of officials from the Caspian littoral countries was held in the national pavilion of Azerbaijan. The topic of discussion was the lowering of the Caspian Sea’s water level in the context of climate change.

The meeting, organized jointly by the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan and the Secretariat of the Framework Convention on the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea, was attended by representatives from Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan. In addition, the Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme and other officials from international organizations were present. As a result of the discussions, a Declaration was adopted by the ministers and high-ranking officials of the Caspian states, strengthening their cooperation in response to the lowering of the Caspian Sea's water level.

It would be unusual to hold a climate conference in Baku and avoid discussing the Caspian Sea. After all, water bodies significantly influence the ecological environment and contribute to the development of life in coastal zones and the broader region. COP29 provides an important opportunity to raise awareness about the situation of the Caspian Sea and galvanize joint efforts to address the issue.

Answering journalists' questions on the first day of COP29, Khalaf Khalafov, the Representative of the President of Azerbaijan for Special Assignments, emphasized that the lowering of the Caspian Sea’s surface could become a serious problem for the Caspian countries, especially for large cities located along the coast. He stressed that the Caspian littoral countries must work together to protect the Caspian Sea, enhance cooperation in all areas, and allocate sufficient financial resources. He also pointed out that one of the most pressing issues is external pollution of the Caspian Sea. The condition of the rivers flowing into the Caspian Sea, such as the Volga and the Urals, should also be closely examined, Khalafov added.

It should be noted that in early October, Azerbaijan and Russia established a bilateral working group to address the issue of the Caspian Sea’s shallowing. The working group includes representatives from key government agencies, and an action plan is being developed, with measures aimed at reducing the negative impact on coastal zones.

It is important to note that the drop in the Caspian Sea's level is a natural and cyclical process. For thousands of years, the sea has retreated and returned to its previous levels. However, in recent times, the sea has been retreating to levels lower than its previous boundaries, and the reasons for this go beyond natural causes. Therefore, discussing the issue at COP29 is crucial. It allows for the global community to focus attention on the problem—not so that others will solve it for us, but so the Caspian countries can address it themselves. The oceans are already facing numerous challenges related to climate change, with some countries sinking due to rising water levels, while others are experiencing drought and water scarcity. Today, nearly every nation is feeling the effects of climate change.

Although the Caspian Sea’s level is not directly influenced by the melting of Arctic glaciers, climate change does affect it through atmospheric warming and increased evaporation. A study published in the journal *Communications Earth & Environment* shows that global warming will impact major lakes and continental seas worldwide. Based on data from recent years, scientists have created a computer model for the Caspian Sea and other large lakes. According to their calculations, the Caspian Sea is expected to be particularly affected. Water from its surface will evaporate faster, and in the northern part of the sea, ice cover will disappear during the winter months. Additionally, the Caspian Sea's level, like any lake, is greatly influenced by the amount of water flowing into it, primarily from rivers such as the Volga, Urals, and others.

In general, while shallowing is a natural process, it is being seriously exacerbated by anthropogenic factors, and these must be addressed. The situation is alarming, and while these factors may not lead to an immediate rise in the sea level, the issues must be dealt with urgently. The reduction in the Caspian Sea’s level impacts the entire ecosystem, biological diversity, and the economies of the coastal countries. The Caspian countries are already experiencing these consequences, and although no one can predict exactly when the sea will begin to rise again, there are plenty of forecasts about its continued shallowing. Western researchers estimate that by the end of the century, the Caspian Sea’s level could drop by 9 to 18 meters, which would result in a loss of almost a third of its volume. Azerbaijani experts, however, are more optimistic, predicting a drop of no more than 3 meters, with a potential rise after 2050.

While efforts are being made to find solutions, irreversible processes are already underway in the Caspian Sea, which could lead to changes in its unique biodiversity. Many have noticed that the sea water has become warmer, which is causing algal blooms and a decrease in oxygen levels, affecting marine life. The retreat of the sea also has socio-economic consequences, depriving coastal communities of their traditional livelihoods.

Earlier this spring, some rise in the sea level was reported, due to prolonged heavy rainfall and an increase in the water levels of the rivers feeding into the Caspian. Prior to that, however, several years of reduced precipitation had caused a 30 percent drop in the water content of the Volga, the Caspian’s main river. While no significant changes were recorded in Azerbaijan, Kazakh media reported a 15-centimeter rise in the Aktau region of Kazakhstan, suggesting that restoring or increasing the flow of water in the rivers could help mitigate the environmental impact. Experts believe that by ensuring a significant rise in river levels, such as the Ural River, the Caspian Sea’s level could increase by several meters. However, removing or reducing the dams and reservoirs obstructing these rivers is a complex issue, as it would impact local economies, agriculture, and populations.

Experts warn that if the Caspian Sea continues to recede, coastal settlements will face more severe consequences, with the water potentially retreating so far that the view of the sea will no longer be a part of daily life. The shallowing will particularly affect the northern part of the sea, with the Russian and Kazakh coasts being hit hardest. In Azerbaijan, the upper Absheron Peninsula is expected to see the coastline recede by up to 100 meters in Sumgayit. The southern regions of Azerbaijan will also be affected.

This underscores the urgency of addressing the issue through collaborative efforts. While humans cannot halt the natural cyclical fluctuations of the Caspian Sea that have occurred for millions of years, we can and must address the artificial causes contributing to the current situation. Those who remember past instances of shallowing of the sea note that the coastal areas were not in such dire condition as they are now. The sea is literally disappearing before our eyes, and this is deeply concerning. The causes of this situation lie in human activities and climate change, which are also the result of human actions.

The Caspian countries must work together to protect the ecosystem of this unique body of water. This requires addressing not only environmental issues but also economic concerns. All steps should be carefully planned, with measures taken at the level of interstate agreements to prevent further degradation of the marine environment. The installation of a sperm whale sculpture on Baku Boulevard serves as a reminder of the challenges facing the Caspian Sea’s ecosystem, symbolizing the importance of acting now to prevent further harm.

While sperm whales are not found in the Caspian Sea, the region’s rich flora and fauna deserve protection, and urgent action is needed to preserve it for future generations.