EUMA's obscure mission near Azerbaijan-Armenia border predicts imminent threat

The Second Garabagh War in 2020 triggered many changes in the South Caucasus. Following Azerbaijan's decisive victory, Armenia's shift towards the West and attempts to become a clear French colony, particularly the arrival of the European Union's observation mission in the region, brought numerous issues with it.

Although the EU's observation mission in Armenia promised to bring peace and tranquillity during its initial arrival, its activities in the South Caucasus have revealed that these promises were false. The mission, which was supposed to conclude in 2022, is still ongoing and has remained silent in the face of numerous provocations by Armenia against Azerbaijan.

The mission currently has nearly 1,500 observers, yet no one knows what they are doing. Considering that Azerbaijan's position has not been taken into account regarding the commencement of long-term activities, it would be misleading to claim that this mission is impartial.

So, what is the EU's observation mission doing in the South Caucasus?

In a comment on the issue for Azernews, political scientist Turab Rzayev stated that the fact that the mission is not causing problems at the moment does not mean it won’t cause issues in the future.

“This observation mission does not currently pose a specific problem for us, but that does not mean it won’t create problems for us in the future. Additionally, we cannot fully ascertain what this mission is currently engaged in. It is likely conducting some documentation processes. However, we do not see the direction of these documents. We may witness documentation being conducted against Azerbaijan over the years.”

The expert noted that the reports might distort information and reflect false narratives.

“For example, Azerbaijan could be depicted as the aggressor in reports, and there could be documentation against Azerbaijan in ceasefire violations, which the international community and the Western public might try to exploit against Azerbaijan in the future.”

Turab Rzayev touched on the mission’s illegal activities since its inception in the South Caucasus.

“A mission that was initially two months long and comprised only 40 people has now been unlawfully extended for more than two years. At the same time, the number of members keeps increasing. There are observation and meeting points, and offices there. Among these objects are both retired and active military personnel. For instance, it is known that 70-80 members of the French Gendarmerie are present here. The Gendarmerie is related to the French Ministry of Defense, meaning it is part of the military. If this is a civilian mission, what are police or military personnel doing there?”

The expert particularly deemed it absurd that representatives from Canada are part of the European mission.

“We see individuals representing Canada here. We know that Canada is not an EU country. So, what are individuals from Canada or the US doing here?”

The political scientist discussed the unnecessary extension of the mission's duration.

“Another issue is the extension of the mission’s timeline. The mission, which has more than a thousand active individuals, has even exceeded its two-year period. Yet, we still witness the preservation of the mission’s existence.

This raises the question: What are you doing there? The mission must provide precise reports to the Azerbaijani side and present its findings. Just because these individuals are not currently engaged in military activities does not mean they will not participate in any provocations or military operations in the future or take on roles such as advisors or military engineers. No one can guarantee that.

This mission has shown enough disrespect to the Azerbaijani side. At the very least, it should fulfil the demands of the Azerbaijani government and share information with us,” T. Rzayev concluded.