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TODAY.AZ / Politics
Azerbaijanis should return to Zangezur - Armenia Has No Options
08 August 2024 [17:44] - TODAY.AZ
By Leyla Tarverdiyeva, Day.Az
Many still continue to wonder why the Karabakh peace talks failed. For a quarter of a century, influential powers and international organizations seemed to be trying to achieve a peaceful solution to the problem, but it all ended in war. Why? Someone will say that it was in Armenia. But this is a misconception. Armenia has never solved anything, and it was not expected of it. The main reason for the failure of attempts to achieve peace was that the conflict was needed by those who were engaged in its alleged settlement. The issue has always been the responsibility of those who did not know its essence and did not try to figure it out. Who, by and large, did not care about international law, justice, and human lives. Over the years of the conflict, mediators and speakers have multiplied, whose main task was not to let it fade away.
Today we can observe, let's say, a mini-version of those 26 years of mediation. After the 2020 war, the same actors make obsessive attempts to somehow identify their special role in the process, although now everyone is trying for themselves, and not for the sake of a "common cause." Azerbaijan has not allowed the institutionalization of external mediation in any format. Previous experience is enough for us to understand that trust is a luxury. The four post-war years have only convinced us of this. External actors are doing everything to ensure that peace never comes to this region. All this looks like support for Armenian interests, and our neighbors foolishly believe in it. Armenians are glad that they were allowed not to sign peace on the terms of Azerbaijan, allowed not to fulfill their obligations following the war and, in general, not to consider themselves the losing side. The Armenians were allowed to consider themselves victims of "aggression" and "ethnic cleansing", to strike a pose and disagree with Baku in nothing. And even to set conditions and bargain.
This week began for our neighbors with another joyful news. Former EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus and the crisis in Georgia Toivo Klaar gave a farewell interview to JanNews in this guise before accepting the "dignity" of the EU ambassador to Uzbekistan. If Tashkent approves the candidacy, the South Caucasus will finally get rid of this official, who has been meaninglessly in office for seven years. This Estonian diplomat is part of a team that has done everything to make Azerbaijan think about the use of force as the only way to restore justice. And today he is trying very hard to ensure that the Armenians never return to Karabakh. Like other European talkers, Klaar understands perfectly well that this return will be possible only if the conditions set by Baku are fulfilled, but gives hope to the Armenians. "I also expect that the Karabakh Armenians will be part of the normalization process and that direct negotiations will take place between Baku and them on their safe and dignified return to their native region. Azerbaijan has obligations in this regard, which, it seems to me, it does not deny."
We advise our neighbors not to pay attention to the last phrase, since in fact Azerbaijan has no obligations. To believe in this will be another self-deception for the Armenians, followed by universal disappointment.
Many Western officials talk about some kind of exclusive rights of Armenians to return to Karabakh, but Klaar went the furthest, without any hesitation, clearly marking the dividing line between the rights of Armenians and the rights of Azerbaijanis. Answering a question from the newspaper, he stated that the return of Armenians to Karabakh and the return of Azerbaijanis to Armenia are "completely different issues for him, which should not be confused." "The first is to facilitate the return of Karabakh Armenians to their ancestral homes, which is an obligation of Azerbaijan. The second is the issue of Armenians who used to live in other parts of Azerbaijan, including Baku, or Azerbaijanis who used to live in Armenia. Naturally, they should also be able to visit the places where they or their families lived, or even return there if they so wish, and this should also be a consequence of normalization, but this is a completely different issue than the specific issue of the Karabakh Armenians."
No one has ever allowed themselves to discriminate against the Azerbaijani people so openly and cynically. More than two hundred thousand Azerbaijanis of Armenia were ethnically cleansed and forcibly expelled from their ancestral lands, and two generations grew up far from their homeland. And this is called "other"...
The problem is that European officials do not have subjectivity, that is, they do not directly influence politics in any way, but speak out the position and interests of various political circles, the political scientist said.
"Despite the fact that they seem to represent the European Union, each of them protects the interests not of the EU, but of some political circles or specific countries - France or someone else who wants to put pressure on Azerbaijan. Therefore, there is no need to look for any logic in the fact that European structures, as they claim, want peace and stability between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There is no logic, as we have seen over the thirty years of the Karabakh conflict. There is no search for a final peace, there are attempts to create a new conflict and conflict management. And here Klaar is no different from his predecessors and, unfortunately, from those who will come after him," Rizvan Huseynov believes.
According to him, Toivo Klaar will comment in a way that is interesting to customers, ignoring reality. And the reality is this: the return of Karabakh Armenians is directly related to the return of Azerbaijanis to Zangezur. It is a single geographical and economic space. Karabakh and Zangezur are a single geographical area, which was once an integral part of the Azerbaijani Karabakh Khanate. During the ADR period, this entire territory was also entirely part of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic. And if at this stage we are talking about the fact that Karabakh Armenians are returning to Karabakh, from where they voluntarily left after the anti-terrorist operation in September 2023, a certain part of Azerbaijanis should return to Zangezur, our interlocutor stressed.
"The realities have changed a long time ago, and Toivo Klaar and others like him are stuck in some former reality. The geopolitical realities were changed by the forces of the Azerbaijani army in the fall of 2020, adjusted several times in subsequent years and finally changed after the September anti-terrorist operation last year. Toivo Klaar and others like him are resisting, they think they can change these realities. But it's not serious. New realities are correcting the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The adjustment is taking place in such a way that Armenia's positions are gradually weakening, while Azerbaijan's positions, on the contrary, are strengthening. If the Armenian authorities had agreed to Baku's terms immediately after the 44-day war, Armenia's position would have been much stronger today, and the Armenians would have continued to live in Karabakh and remained a kind of lever of pressure on Azerbaijan. But it was Armenia's unsuccessful policy, which has no political subjectivity, that led to the fact that, listening to the advice of various European commissioners, French politicians, and the Washington politburo, it managed to blow itself as a state and miss all the chances that it had in dialogue with Baku after the 44-day war. And no Klaar can change anything. He simply has to take into account the new realities. And these realities dictate the following: if Karabakh Armenians return to Karabakh, then Azerbaijanis should return to Zangezur proportionally and mirrorily. We are not talking about Baku or Ganja Armenians here. At this stage, we are also not talking about Yerevan, Goychin, Gyumri and other Azerbaijanis who were expelled from Armenia in the late 80s of the last century. We are talking about a single geographical and economic region - Karabakh and Zangezur, and the return of Armenians and Azerbaijanis to these lands, respectively. Everything else is a matter of the future," the political scientist said.
Rizvan Huseynov stressed that there is no option in which Azerbaijan will agree to the return of Armenians to Karabakh without the Azerbaijanis returning to Zangezur. The Karabakh-Zangezur link definitely exists. Our interlocutor recalled that at one time the restoration of the Zangezur road was directly linked to the functioning of the road through Lachin. The Armenians liked to call this road a corridor and refused to accept the road through Zangezur in the same status. It would have been about unhindered movement in both directions, but the Armenian side believed that only the Lachin road should exist for unhindered and uncontrolled movement. The Armenians abandoned the Zangezur corridor, and through it, the unblocking of all other communications.
"As of today, the Trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020 has lost its force and significance. As a result of the anti-terrorist operation on September 19-20, 2023, new realities were created. Russia has absolved itself of the responsibility it bore under the Trilateral Statement. She was supposed to become the guarantor of the security of the Zangezur corridor, but the Armenian side refused her services, listening to the agenda dictated to her from Washington and Paris. And so far, all the fuss around this topic is related to the fact that Armenia refuses to fulfill its obligations. Yerevan wants the security of communications through Zangezur to be provided either by the Americans, the French, or the European mission - anyone but the Russians. This is one of the obstacles that hinders the entire normalization process, including the possibility of the return of Armenians to Karabakh.
Who Armenia wants to see as the guarantor of its security is its own business. But in this case, it creates a new conflict zone in the region, itself turning into a "battlefield" between the United States and Russia. Zangezur has actually turned into a space of discord between the leading powers. Moreover, not only Russia, but also other regional countries - Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan - do not want Western players, including the United States and France, to speculate about the safety of the road through Zangezur and cause future clashes and wars in our region. Armenia should have been the first to abandon such a prospect, but...", said Rizvan Huseynov.
Today we can observe, let's say, a mini-version of those 26 years of mediation. After the 2020 war, the same actors make obsessive attempts to somehow identify their special role in the process, although now everyone is trying for themselves, and not for the sake of a "common cause." Azerbaijan has not allowed the institutionalization of external mediation in any format. Previous experience is enough for us to understand that trust is a luxury. The four post-war years have only convinced us of this. External actors are doing everything to ensure that peace never comes to this region. All this looks like support for Armenian interests, and our neighbors foolishly believe in it. Armenians are glad that they were allowed not to sign peace on the terms of Azerbaijan, allowed not to fulfill their obligations following the war and, in general, not to consider themselves the losing side. The Armenians were allowed to consider themselves victims of "aggression" and "ethnic cleansing", to strike a pose and disagree with Baku in nothing. And even to set conditions and bargain.
This week began for our neighbors with another joyful news. Former EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus and the crisis in Georgia Toivo Klaar gave a farewell interview to JanNews in this guise before accepting the "dignity" of the EU ambassador to Uzbekistan. If Tashkent approves the candidacy, the South Caucasus will finally get rid of this official, who has been meaninglessly in office for seven years. This Estonian diplomat is part of a team that has done everything to make Azerbaijan think about the use of force as the only way to restore justice. And today he is trying very hard to ensure that the Armenians never return to Karabakh. Like other European talkers, Klaar understands perfectly well that this return will be possible only if the conditions set by Baku are fulfilled, but gives hope to the Armenians. "I also expect that the Karabakh Armenians will be part of the normalization process and that direct negotiations will take place between Baku and them on their safe and dignified return to their native region. Azerbaijan has obligations in this regard, which, it seems to me, it does not deny."
We advise our neighbors not to pay attention to the last phrase, since in fact Azerbaijan has no obligations. To believe in this will be another self-deception for the Armenians, followed by universal disappointment.
Many Western officials talk about some kind of exclusive rights of Armenians to return to Karabakh, but Klaar went the furthest, without any hesitation, clearly marking the dividing line between the rights of Armenians and the rights of Azerbaijanis. Answering a question from the newspaper, he stated that the return of Armenians to Karabakh and the return of Azerbaijanis to Armenia are "completely different issues for him, which should not be confused." "The first is to facilitate the return of Karabakh Armenians to their ancestral homes, which is an obligation of Azerbaijan. The second is the issue of Armenians who used to live in other parts of Azerbaijan, including Baku, or Azerbaijanis who used to live in Armenia. Naturally, they should also be able to visit the places where they or their families lived, or even return there if they so wish, and this should also be a consequence of normalization, but this is a completely different issue than the specific issue of the Karabakh Armenians."
No one has ever allowed themselves to discriminate against the Azerbaijani people so openly and cynically. More than two hundred thousand Azerbaijanis of Armenia were ethnically cleansed and forcibly expelled from their ancestral lands, and two generations grew up far from their homeland. And this is called "other"...
The problem is that European officials do not have subjectivity, that is, they do not directly influence politics in any way, but speak out the position and interests of various political circles, the political scientist said.
"Despite the fact that they seem to represent the European Union, each of them protects the interests not of the EU, but of some political circles or specific countries - France or someone else who wants to put pressure on Azerbaijan. Therefore, there is no need to look for any logic in the fact that European structures, as they claim, want peace and stability between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There is no logic, as we have seen over the thirty years of the Karabakh conflict. There is no search for a final peace, there are attempts to create a new conflict and conflict management. And here Klaar is no different from his predecessors and, unfortunately, from those who will come after him," Rizvan Huseynov believes.
According to him, Toivo Klaar will comment in a way that is interesting to customers, ignoring reality. And the reality is this: the return of Karabakh Armenians is directly related to the return of Azerbaijanis to Zangezur. It is a single geographical and economic space. Karabakh and Zangezur are a single geographical area, which was once an integral part of the Azerbaijani Karabakh Khanate. During the ADR period, this entire territory was also entirely part of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic. And if at this stage we are talking about the fact that Karabakh Armenians are returning to Karabakh, from where they voluntarily left after the anti-terrorist operation in September 2023, a certain part of Azerbaijanis should return to Zangezur, our interlocutor stressed.
"The realities have changed a long time ago, and Toivo Klaar and others like him are stuck in some former reality. The geopolitical realities were changed by the forces of the Azerbaijani army in the fall of 2020, adjusted several times in subsequent years and finally changed after the September anti-terrorist operation last year. Toivo Klaar and others like him are resisting, they think they can change these realities. But it's not serious. New realities are correcting the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The adjustment is taking place in such a way that Armenia's positions are gradually weakening, while Azerbaijan's positions, on the contrary, are strengthening. If the Armenian authorities had agreed to Baku's terms immediately after the 44-day war, Armenia's position would have been much stronger today, and the Armenians would have continued to live in Karabakh and remained a kind of lever of pressure on Azerbaijan. But it was Armenia's unsuccessful policy, which has no political subjectivity, that led to the fact that, listening to the advice of various European commissioners, French politicians, and the Washington politburo, it managed to blow itself as a state and miss all the chances that it had in dialogue with Baku after the 44-day war. And no Klaar can change anything. He simply has to take into account the new realities. And these realities dictate the following: if Karabakh Armenians return to Karabakh, then Azerbaijanis should return to Zangezur proportionally and mirrorily. We are not talking about Baku or Ganja Armenians here. At this stage, we are also not talking about Yerevan, Goychin, Gyumri and other Azerbaijanis who were expelled from Armenia in the late 80s of the last century. We are talking about a single geographical and economic region - Karabakh and Zangezur, and the return of Armenians and Azerbaijanis to these lands, respectively. Everything else is a matter of the future," the political scientist said.
Rizvan Huseynov stressed that there is no option in which Azerbaijan will agree to the return of Armenians to Karabakh without the Azerbaijanis returning to Zangezur. The Karabakh-Zangezur link definitely exists. Our interlocutor recalled that at one time the restoration of the Zangezur road was directly linked to the functioning of the road through Lachin. The Armenians liked to call this road a corridor and refused to accept the road through Zangezur in the same status. It would have been about unhindered movement in both directions, but the Armenian side believed that only the Lachin road should exist for unhindered and uncontrolled movement. The Armenians abandoned the Zangezur corridor, and through it, the unblocking of all other communications.
"As of today, the Trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020 has lost its force and significance. As a result of the anti-terrorist operation on September 19-20, 2023, new realities were created. Russia has absolved itself of the responsibility it bore under the Trilateral Statement. She was supposed to become the guarantor of the security of the Zangezur corridor, but the Armenian side refused her services, listening to the agenda dictated to her from Washington and Paris. And so far, all the fuss around this topic is related to the fact that Armenia refuses to fulfill its obligations. Yerevan wants the security of communications through Zangezur to be provided either by the Americans, the French, or the European mission - anyone but the Russians. This is one of the obstacles that hinders the entire normalization process, including the possibility of the return of Armenians to Karabakh.
Who Armenia wants to see as the guarantor of its security is its own business. But in this case, it creates a new conflict zone in the region, itself turning into a "battlefield" between the United States and Russia. Zangezur has actually turned into a space of discord between the leading powers. Moreover, not only Russia, but also other regional countries - Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan - do not want Western players, including the United States and France, to speculate about the safety of the road through Zangezur and cause future clashes and wars in our region. Armenia should have been the first to abandon such a prospect, but...", said Rizvan Huseynov.
URL: http://www.today.az/news/politics/251538.html
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