TODAY.AZ / Politics

Who needs gas? - ANALYSIS

23 July 2024 [14:35] - TODAY.AZ
By Leyla Tarverdiyeva, Day.Az

"If my message can be expressed in a short sentence, it would be: 'Stop hypocrisy.'"
This is how President Ilham Aliyev began his answer to the question about the contradictions between the plans and affairs of the West regarding decarbonization, asked to him during the Shusha Global Media forum. The head of Azerbaijan, one might say, spoke so openly about this for the first time. The issue is very painful and relevant for our country, and if today the President spoke directly to Azerbaijan's Western partners, it means that they could not be convinced of the unreasonableness and illogicality of their actions. Not yet, anyway. Unwilling to finance oil and gas projects anymore, Europe, nevertheless, continues to expect miracles of altruism from Azerbaijan. But, as the President said, Azerbaijan has not gone mad.

"I say that it is important to put an end to hypocrisy, because, on the one hand, Europe is asking us to increase production and transport gas to Europe, as it seriously needs it. On the other hand, they don't finance it. This was one of the topics of my discussions with my European colleagues. The European Investment Bank (EIB) has completely stopped financing projects related to fossil fuels. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has almost completely stopped financing such projects... They want us to invest additional billions, while in the EU they say that in 10 years or maybe even earlier they will not need gas. So we have to be crazy to invest billions in something they won't need. And then they look into our eyes and say, "Where is our gas?" So my message is: stop this game, you know that it is impossible to live without fossil fuels," President Ilham Aliyev said.

The last words are literally thrown into the field of "enthusiasts" of the green transition, whose plans are more like fairy tales. Someone had to say this, and that someone became the President of Azerbaijan, a politician who is not afraid to tell the truth.
The fuss started around the really relevant and important issue of combating climate change does not look convincing. Watching what is happening, it does not seem that the leading countries really intend to solve the problem in the interests of saving the planet. Everything, as in the case of the pandemic, comes down to the realization of one's own interests, and in the most comfortable ways. At the same time, it does not matter that the economies and well-being of those countries that have provided them with energy resources for decades, often plundered by the metropolises themselves, will be destroyed. The President of Azerbaijan is absolutely right - the life of a modern state is impossible without fossil fuels. This is a utopia, and what is happening today is a game played by unfair rules.

A remarkable fact was shared at the media forum by a professor at Bay Atlantic University (Washington) Paulo Liebl von Chirac. According to him, last year the United States achieved the largest production volume in its history in the oil and gas sector. That is, a country that votes for decarbonization with both hands, taking advantage of the geopolitical situation, is actively increasing production.
By the way, according to a UN report published in 2022, the United States was the largest emitter of greenhouse gases - more than 14 tons of CO2 per capita, followed by Russia (13 tons of CO2 per capita), followed by China - 9.7 tons. The EU ranks sixth with an indicator of 7.2 tons per capita, three times ahead of one and a half billion India.

Having literally forced Europe to abandon inexpensive Russian energy carriers, the United States is trying to replace them with its expensive fuel. Europe is kicking, looking for a more acceptable and affordable replacement, but the idea of decarbonization hangs before our eyes like a slogan over the door of some Soviet-era cultural center - you don't want to, but you will read it. The idea is correct, very important, but turned into a kind of tool that no one knows how to use correctly. Instead of fighting for the future with a united front, disunity is deepening between the countries of the world, those who are stronger and richer, as always, are looking for the culprits among those who are weaker and poorer. At the same time, those who are weaker and poorer are least to blame, but more than developed countries suffer from climate change. Africa, for example, accounts for only a small proportion of global greenhouse gas emissions, but its countries are disproportionately affected by climate change. According to the latest report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this damages food security, ecosystems and the economy, provokes displacement and migration of the population and increases the threat of conflict due to dwindling resources.

In connection with this global problem, Azerbaijan has decided to launch a program to support small island States seriously affected by climate change. While the developed world is panicking and looking for the culprits, a small country in the South Caucasus has taken on such a task. This is a big and serious job and a lot of responsibility. Azerbaijan itself has enough problems caused by climate tricks, but Baku is well aware that no one will be able to escape alone. This summer has set the heat in many regions of the world. In every sense of the word. There were peak temperature readings, and devastating hurricanes and floods. Villages have become a real disaster in Azerbaijan itself.  

President Ilham Aliyev admitted that he had never been involved in the climate agenda before, and now he saw in all shades that in addition to the climate crisis itself, there is an equally serious problem of distrust between developed and developing countries. There are mutual accusations on the topic of who caused the most harm to the planet, who bears the most responsibility and how to bring the perpetrators to justice or punishment. We want to stop all this because it will lead us nowhere, the President of Azerbaijan said in Shusha. Baku will run this line on COP29. He put the task of rallying in the fight against a common scourge, "green solidarity" at the forefront. As President Ilham Aliyev says, we know how to build bridges.

Especially a lot of stones, of course, fly into the ranks of mining countries. And here the hypocrisy of Azerbaijan's Western partners is most pronounced. European officials regularly talk about the need to expand gas supplies from Azerbaijan, the expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor, and their energy security. Autumn and winter are ahead, and the EU countries are already thinking about what they will do when their gas storage facilities are emptied. America is increasingly demanding to break off gas cooperation with Russia completely. The EU is going to do it next year. And what will happen next?

At the 10th ministerial meeting on SGC in February this year, European Union Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson once again spoke about expanding the supply chain. At a press conference with Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov, she announced that the EU intends to further expand cooperation with Azerbaijan in the energy sector. "Today we have agreed on a number of key issues. First, all partners and stakeholders in the region are striving to increase gas supplies from Azerbaijan. This includes increasing supplies to 20 billion cubic meters by 2027. We will also need to modernize the existing gas infrastructure," Simson said.

Christina Lobillo Borrero, Director General of the European Commission's Department of International Relations, said during the Baku Energy Forum that "The European Union is currently experiencing a very serious energy crisis against the background of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Given this, it is very important to diversify the directions of gas supplies. And Azerbaijan is a reliable partner of Europe in the issue of gas supplies."

Great ideas. Azerbaijan is also in favor. But who will pay for all this? The EU continues to need oil and gas and even seeks to increase imports from Azerbaijan, while stopping financing oil and gas projects. Europe wants more and more Azerbaijani gas, new agreements are being signed, but the SGC is not dimensionless. Increasing the capacity of its European TANAP segment to 20 and 32 billion cubic meters requires huge investments. Azerbaijan cannot take such a risk, given that even before production from new fields in the Caspian reaches its design capacity, Europe will begin to reduce gas imports.

For whom and for whom should Baku spend money? The republic itself and its neighbors have enough available reserves. Azerbaijan has gas. Talk about the alleged depletion of stocks is just propaganda stuffing of enemies and envious people. Recently, the first gas was produced at the Absheron gas condensate field, the second largest in reserves after Shah Deniz. Next year, natural gas production will begin (or rather, it may begin if consumers show active interest) in the very promising deepwater part of the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli block. There are reserves at Umid, Babek, Shafag, Asiman, Karabakh, and the second phase of Absheron is ahead. Investment decisions are required for all these positions. So it depends on the European partners whether the development of these fields will begin or not. We repeat, Azerbaijan itself and its closest neighbors already have enough reserves in operation.

Azerbaijan can provide filling of the pipe of the Southern Gas Corridor in case of its expansion. It's filled to the brim now. Moreover, only with Azerbaijani gas. European countries are building connectors in the expectation that blue fuel from the South Caucasus will begin to flow to them. But in order to meet their demands, it is necessary to increase production and connect new sources. And new sources, in turn, require financing.    

It turns out to be something like a vicious circle. Europe wants more Azerbaijani gas and calls for the expansion of SGC, but at the same time refuses to invest in it, because it has embarked on the path of decarbonization and its banks no longer invest in hydrocarbon projects. Where is the logic? She's not here.
Perhaps someone thinks that Baku will do anything to please the West and be useful to it. But this is a misconception.
URL: http://www.today.az/news/politics/250954.html

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