Why does Armenia keep silent about Karabakh conflict settlement?

Everything is of an exclusive nature in Armenia. For example, Armenian myths, Armenian diplomacy, Armenian international law, the Armenian globe, etc. Everyone who has visited Armenia or gotten interested in the country is aware of this fact. But the fact that there is also an Armenian calendar is something new. In this calendar, an Armenian day equals nine regular days and an Armenian week equals over one month according to the world calendar.

In January 2010, the OSCE Minsk Group submitted the so-called Madrid Principles to the parties of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Based on these principles, a "major political agreement" should be reached, which will describe in detail terms and mechanisms for resolving the conflict.

In the meantime, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been told that an answer to the proposals should be provided within two weeks. The mediators did not say the answer should be unequivocally positive. The parties should simply provide an answer. Azerbaijan, which lives according to the generally accepted world calendar, gave a response in the negotiated period. Armenia is still silent, apparently due to its notorious calendar.

It is hard to judge whether Armenia’s delayed response to the proposals is positive or negative. On the one hand, it cannot say “no” because the international community would not understand. On the other hand, Sargsyan regime would never seemingly give back what it has grabbed. Armenia keeps silent, which causes confusion among the co-chairs and at the same time risks aggravating the situation.

The basic point of the Madrid principles implies returning the occupied territories surrounding Nagorno Karabakh to Azerbaijan’s control.

Of course, not all of the principles reflect the limits of our desires. Still, a compromise is a compromise, and the Azerbaijani side has accepted the document proposed by the co-chairs. But Armenia keeps stubbornly silent. The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs encourage the country to hurry up and voice its opinion. Azerbaijan is also urging Armenia to do the same, hinting that the talks could otherwise become meaningless.

What consequences does Armenia face by keeping silent? There are two options.

First and foremost, Azerbaijan will have the right to terminate the long tedious process of the talks, or completely later their format (for example, to remove the OSCE Minsk Group from the settlement process). In this case, military might would replace diplomacy.

War is evil, but there will be more and more talks about war due to Armenia’s silence. This tool is used by everyone and Azerbaijan can be no exception. Thankfully, the international community is concerned about Armenia’s stance, as was confirmed by a recent European parliamentary resolution. International organizations urge Armenia to release the occupied territories willfully to prevent  military action, but “peace enforcement” operations are popular worldwide.

This is the worst possible scenario, but it is plausible. First, I belived that in the 21st century political problems should be resolved through diplomacy, not through war. Unfortunately, war is sometimes inevitable.

Second, the OSCE co-chairs have announced that the Madrid Principles are balanced and must serve as the basis to resolving the conflict. Armenia’s silence seems to be a sign of a discontent. Yerevan risks losing its privileged position in which an occupier country and a country suffering occupation are treated equally by the conflict mediators. Had it not been for the double standards inherent in international politics, Armenia would have been punished long ago.

But Yerevan continues to wait, and the co-chairs may adopt a decision which would ultimately appear to be unacceptable for Yerevan. Therefore, one wonders what one should do – sit back and be pleased with Armenia’s silence or rejoice in its positive response to the Madrid Principles. Both options will be in Azerbaijan's favor. Yerevan needs to understand that what Azerbaijan and mediators offer today cannot be offered tomorrow. Armenia gets weaker with each day amid increasing pressure from the international community.  


K. Guluzade
/Day.Az/