Green ambitions rise as Hormuz tests China’s energy security

Escalating tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz once again demonstrate how deeply global energy security remains tied to geopolitics. Despite rapid progress in renewable technologies and electrification in many countries, oil and gas continue to serve not only as energy sources but also as strategic tools capable of shaping international power dynamics.

The current crisis illustrates a broader question increasingly discussed among analysts - if alternative energy systems were more widely deployed, would strategic chokepoints such as Hormuz still carry the same geopolitical leverage?

Amid rising tensions with Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump urged several major economies, including China, France, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom, to deploy warships to help secure the strategic maritime passage. Trump argued that Iran’s military capabilities had already been severely degraded but warned that the country could still threaten shipping in the waterway through asymmetric tactics. In a post on the social media platform Truth Social, Trump stated that Iran could still “send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close-range missile somewhere along, or in, this waterway.”

He called on affected nations to participate in securing the route: “Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others that are affected by this artificial constraint will send ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat,” Trump wrote.

The U.S. president added that Washington would continue military operations along Iran’s coastline and support international partners participating in the mission, declaring that the United States would ensure the strait becomes “open, safe and free.”

The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz explains the urgency of these calls. Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply and a significant share of liquefied natural gas shipments pass through the narrow corridor each day, making it one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world.

China’s energy transition may reduce energy vulnerability

While the crisis has triggered concerns across energy-importing economies, analysts note that China may be somewhat better positioned than during previous geopolitical shocks. Over the past decade, Beijing has pursued a deliberate strategy to reduce its dependence on imported fossil fuels by accelerating electrification and expanding renewable energy capacity. Reflecting this cautious approach, officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China have called for de-escalation, stressing that all parties share responsibility for maintaining stable global energy supplies.

At the same time, China’s position as the world’s largest crude oil importer has created a complex web of energy dependencies. The country imports roughly 10–11 million barrels of crude oil per day, with around 65 percent coming from the Middle East, making maritime transport routes a critical component of its energy security.

The Strait of Hormuz represents the most significant vulnerability in this supply chain. An estimated 4–5 million barrels of crude oil destined for Chinese refineries pass through the waterway each day, accounting for the vast majority of China’s seaborne oil imports. Any disruption to shipping in the strait would therefore create immediate logistical and financial challenges.

Rerouting tankers through longer Indian Ocean routes would significantly increase transport times and costs, potentially adding 10–14 days to delivery schedules and raising shipping expenses by $1.50–3 per barrel. Such delays could place additional pressure on supply chains and energy markets during periods of geopolitical instability.

To mitigate these risks, China has built one of the world’s largest strategic petroleum reserve systems. Analysts estimate that the country holds around 900-950 million barrels of crude oil in government and commercial storage facilities, providing roughly two months of import coverage. Combined with the large volumes of oil constantly in transit to Chinese ports, these reserves provide a buffer that could help the country absorb short-term disruptions in global supply routes.

According to the International Energy Agency, China’s demand for gasoline and diesel has already begun to decline despite continued economic growth, while total crude oil demand has largely plateaued. One of the most striking developments is the rapid expansion of electric mobility. More than half of all new cars sold in China last year were electric, reflecting the country’s aggressive push toward electrification.

At the same time, China has become the world’s largest installer of solar and wind power, adding more renewable capacity annually than the rest of the world combined. This transformation has steadily increased the share of electricity generated from non-fossil sources. As a result, Beijing is gradually shifting its economic structure toward an electricity-based energy system, which analysts say could reduce exposure to disruptions in maritime oil transport routes.

However, China’s energy security strategy goes beyond renewables alone. Beijing has also invested heavily in strategic oil stockpiles, domestic coal production and flexible power infrastructure capable of responding to supply shocks. Many Chinese coal plants have been retrofitted to operate more flexibly, allowing them to ramp production up or down in response to fluctuations in power demand. This provides a fallback option if imported fuels become scarce.

China can also convert coal into liquid fuels and industrial feedstocks, partially replacing oil or gas in certain sectors. While this provides energy resilience, it could also lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions, complicating the country’s climate goals. The Chinese government has pledged to reduce carbon intensity by 17 percent by 2030, although recent energy security concerns have slightly moderated the pace of planned reductions.

Ultimately, the Hormuz crisis highlights a deeper structural transformation underway in global energy systems. While oil remains a powerful geopolitical instrument, the rapid expansion of renewable energy, electrification and energy storage technologies is gradually altering the strategic landscape.

All of this underscores the growing importance of energy diversification and technological transformation. Countries that diversify their energy sources and reduce reliance on imported hydrocarbons may become less vulnerable to disruptions at maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz.

As renewable technologies continue to expand globally, the ability of energy resources to serve as a geopolitical lever may gradually diminish, although the current crisis suggests that this transition is not yet complete.