Could Germany's new leading man save Europe and who is he?

Friedrich Merz’s long-anticipated victory in Germany’s federal election on February 23rd marked a shift in the country’s political landscape. His Christian Democratic Union (CDU), along with its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU), secured the top spot. However, their 28.6% share of the vote—one of the lowest in their history—dampened celebrations at CDU headquarters. The unpopularity of Olaf Scholz’s outgoing government had raised hopes for a stronger conservative resurgence, yet the real winner of the night was the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which claimed nearly a quarter of Bundestag seats and established dominance in the east, while making significant gains in the west.

The CDU found some relief in the failure of the Free Democrats and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance to surpass the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. This allowed Merz to form a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) rather than requiring a third partner. Coalition negotiations are set to begin soon, but the question remains: Can Merz steer Germany—and by extension, Europe—through its mounting crises?

A new era for Germany’s role in Europe?

Germany finds itself at a crossroads. With Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his threats to scale back U.S. military commitments to NATO, the burden of European security may shift dramatically. In a geopolitical climate where Russian aggression looms and NATO members brace for the worst-case scenario, Germany faces mounting expectations to take the lead.

And that scenario is an attack on NATO territory. NATO is currently conducting its largest military exercise since the Cold War, meant to demonstrate collective military power. With 32 NATO countries agreeing on collective defense, Germany has emerged as a crucial logistical hub due to its central location in Europe. In recent years, it has significantly increased its defense spending and has become Europe's largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine.

But despite these efforts, Europe still heavily relies on the United States for military capabilities. The U.S. not only supplies the bulk of NATO's weaponry but also maintains around 100,000 troops on European soil. About one-third of these forces are stationed in Germany, reinforcing the country's critical role in European security. However, Trump’s demands that NATO members increase their defense spending to 5% of their GDP have added further uncertainty to the alliance’s future.

Germany’s historical reluctance to assume a military leadership role dates back to its post-World War II restrictions and the Cold War era. The defeat of Nazi Germany led to the dissolution of its military, and during the Cold War, both East and West Germany were rearmed only for self-defense within their respective alliances. Following reunification in 1990, Germany further reduced its defense budget, prioritizing economic and diplomatic leadership instead. That stance changed dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, forcing Germany to rethink its military strategy.

Merz assumes office at a time when Germany has been increasing its defense spending and playing a central role in NATO’s largest military exercises since the Cold War. Chancellor Scholz announced a historic €100 billion defense fund to modernize the German military, including investments in air defenses, tanks, F-35 fighter jets, and helicopters. For the first time, Germany is establishing a permanent military presence outside its borders, with a new base in Lithuania. It has also committed to NATO’s 2% defense spending target, though analysts argue this may still be insufficient.

Yet, challenges remain. According to a 2024 government report, Germany’s military remains under-equipped and understaffed, with discussions underway about reintroducing conscription. Defense spending is a politically divisive issue in Germany, and opposition parties have capitalized on public skepticism regarding Berlin’s support for Ukraine. Populist parties, particularly the AfD, have gained ground by questioning Germany’s military commitments and advocating a more isolationist stance. Perhaps, the success of the military-political program depends on economic reforms, and we will soon see if the right-wing can make Germany great again.

Can Merz change Germany's direction?

Germany’s reluctance to lead Europe’s defense is also reflected in its approach to Ukraine. Instead of taking charge, Berlin prefers to act within alliances. Meanwhile, other European nations have stepped up their defense investments. Poland plans to spend 5% of its GDP on defense—more than the U.S. The Baltic and Nordic countries are also increasing military spending, fortifying their borders with Russia and Belarus. Sweden has even distributed wartime preparedness booklets to millions of households.

Despite these regional efforts, Germany’s leadership remains crucial. France and the UK possess strong militaries and nuclear capabilities but are facing domestic political crises. With Brexit, the UK has distanced itself from European leadership, leaving Germany as the logical candidate to spearhead European security efforts.

But can Friedrich Merz shift Germany’s traditional stance? Merz is a staunch conservative with pro-business credentials, a commitment to NATO, and a more assertive foreign policy approach compared to Scholz. His party on the other hand is not entirely unfamiliar to Trump and European Union. Notably, it is also the party of Angela Merkel, the former German Chancellor, with whom he is well acquainted. Additionally, it’s important to highlight that Friedrich Merz, although from the same party, holds more conservative views than Merkel did. In fact, Merz temporarily left politics in 2009 because he felt he could not compete against Merkel due to their differing political ideologies. He returned to politics in 2018 after learning that Merkel would not be running for office again.

Perhaps, the circumstances are different this time. The party now faces the "Ukraine problem," which carries the risk of a large-scale war and Donald Trump who has adopted a tougher stance on his foreign policy than during his first term in office. Perhaps amidst the leader vacuum in Europe, Merz, like Merkel before him, can find common ground with Trump, either alone or alongside Emmanuel Macron (who was quite good in terms of easing the 'tensions' with Trump with and without Merkel), to resolve existing issues.

His leadership will be tested by the challenge of balancing Germany’s economic priorities with its growing military responsibilities. If he fails, Germany may find itself unable to rise to the occasion just as Europe needs it most. In the face of an unpredictable U.S., and a fractured Europe, Germany’s future role in continental security will define not only its own trajectory but that of the entire region. Whether Friedrich Merz is the man to meet that challenge remains an open question.

Image credit: Jess Frampton