Baku-Yerevan peace agreement: unfinished obligations

By Elnur Enveroglu

The process of peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia continues its next and almost final stage. Although the soft policy that Armenia has seen from Azerbaijan still continues, Pashinyan's administration clearly feels that there is no longer any means to circumvent several unfinished obligations.

For this reason, since the last month, visits from the United States to Yerevan have started to become more frequent.

USAID head Samantha Puel's visit to Yerevan the other day showed more concern of the West. Because the appearance of the agency, especially in the South Caucasus, has always been associated with significant events for the West. It seems that the latest statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan did not go unnoticed here. Thus, the last olive branch extended by the Azerbaijani side to Armenia regarding the issue of peace forced Yerevan to knock on the door of its ally, and on the other hand, the sensitive situation in Georgia. Therefore, USAID took it upon itself to visit the South Caucasus.

However, this visit of USAID cannot necessarily be connected only to Armenia. Because the factor of Georgia's non-admission to the European Union, as well as the upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia, has somehow started to cause strong irritation in the West. It is known to everyone that USAID is the most active and profitable representation of the USA in the South Caucasus who also focuses on regional issues within its interests. Here, Armenia is no exception, and the US State Department is directly interested in the dynamics of the processes taking place in the country. For example, the tripartite meeting of US State Department Secretary Antony Blinken with the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in parallel with the NATO summit shows that the US is interested in the processes.

A dilemma for Armenia in the peace process

There are several behind-the-scenes reasons why Armenia is more oriented towards the United States. One of them is related to the unknown political processes taking place in France. The defeat of the Macronists to the left wing in the last parliamentary elections and the question of whether the government will stay or go in the next stage have confused Yerevan. Because official Paris, which talked about military support to Armenia a few months ago, is experiencing a desperate situation in terms of ensuring its own security. So, the promised military aid has not been moved out of storage yet, let alone hit the road to Yerevan.

In such a case, Armenia's last hope is Washington, as it assumes that it will gain time through its mediation to delay the issue of changing the constitution, which is stuck in its throat like a bone.

Can changes to the constitution lead Yerevan to the next crisis?

The current situation in Yerevan and the position of the masses against the Pashinyan administration do not indicate any disaster for the incumbent government. However, in addition to the fact that the Armenian leadership has repeatedly emphasised the importance of changing the constitution, the fact that it is still unable to implement it shows that the situation is somewhat serious from the point of view of the possibility of increased pressure from outside the country. Thus, the fact that Pashinyan struggles to fulfil his commitment clearly shows that he fears the political elite and lobby organisations rather than the masses, which are mostly influenced by foreign forces. Because the existence of the preamble in the Armenian constitution also means that the neighbouring state's position regarding its territorial claim is unchanged. In addition to directly contradicting the peace process, this also acts as a threat to Baku. However, the opposition forces in Armenia consider it the opposite. According to their opinion, it is the existence of preamble in that constitution that keeps Yerevan standing.

Recall that Pashinyan's statement on the change of the constitution in Parliament on July 5 was criticised. The opposition side claimed that removing the preamble, which Pashinyan says a must to change, will include the personal views and political agenda of Pashinyan's government rather than the will of the people. Therefore, the pressure of the opposition forces once again shows that Yerevan does not want to understand the essence of the peace talks. However, the processes are still ongoing...