Iran's 2013 oil export likely over IEA estimates

By Dalga Kgatinoglu, Trend

The Central Bank of Iran released a report on June 25, covering economic performance from March 22, 2013 to December 22, 2013.

The report says that the country's petroleum export - including crude oil, gas condensate, oil productions, natural gas liquids (NGL), natural gas, liquid petroleum gas (LPG) as well as various oils and lubricants* - reached $ 46.532 billion during the mentioned period.

On the other hand, the statistics of a three-month period ending on March 22, 2013 indicates petroleum export value was above $16 billion.

So, Iran during a 12-month period started on December 22, 2012 (approximately corresponds to the year 2013) exported about $62.5 billion worth of mentioned commodities.

It is not clear that CBI calculated the petroleum revenues based on selling, loading or payment date.

The Iran Custom Administration's monthly statistics also indicates that Iran had sold $8.63 billion worth gas condensate export during a 12-month period started on December 22, 2012.

Custom's statistics indicate that Iran had sold a little more than $2.5 billion worth NGL and LPG as well as less than $400 various oils and lubricants*.

Iran also exports liquid fuels, especially fuel oil. Iran's fuel exports in 2011 was 72 million liters per day (10.1 million tons per year), but the country reportedly has increased fuel oil exports since mid-2012 when the West imposed sanctions on Iran's oil exports.

Iran's fuel oil exports during 2013 seem to be from 250,000 to 300,000 barrels per day and worth about $10 billion.

According to the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC), Tehran also had a little oil-gas, Naphtha and kerosene exports until 2010, but statistics show narrowing the net exports of these oil productions to an ignorable level.

On the other hand, BP annual report and Iran's official statistics shows the country's total natural gas exports during this period were 9.4 billion cubic meters.

If Iran sold its gas above $450 per thousand cubic meters, then the country's natural gas exports was likely about $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion during 2013.

On the other hand, the head of Supreme Audit Court of Iran Amir Hossein Rahimi said in early May that during last Iranian fiscal year, about $42 billion worth of oil and gas condensate revenues were collected, indicating a $14 billion decrease compared to the previous year.

Regarding the fact that about all of Iran's oil export targets are Asian markets (excepting Turkey) and from selling oil to collecting the revenues lasts about three months, then Rahimi's mentioned figure covers Iran's oil exports during 2013 approximately.

Therefore, Iran's total crude oil and gas condensate exports during 2013 should be between $42 to $44 billion, equal to about 1.15 million to 1.2 million barrels per day based on oil prices during 2013, a figure that International Energy Agency estimated to be 1.07 million barrels per day during last year (equal to about $40 billion).

According to the US Energy Administration Iran's petroleum during 2012 was 1.5 million barrels per day, estimated to be $69 billion. The figure for 2011 was $95 billion, when Iran was selling 2.5 million barrels of crude oil and condensate.

*commodities included in the category of 2709, 2710 and 2711 codes.

Dalga Khatinoglu is specialist on Iran's energy sector and Iran News Service head in Trend Agency