Paul Gauble: "Moscow, Yerevan and Tehran are interested in existence of the Karabakh conflict"

- Russia and Ukraine have eventually settled differences on the gas problem. Meanwhile, most observers consider that the gas scandal accentuates Europe's attention on such countries as Azerbaijan. Do you agree with it?

- The conflict between Moscow and Kiev underscored Azerbaijan's importance in the eyes of the European Union and the United States and therefore, Russia and Iran can take response actions, which may worsen the state of Azerbaijani powers.

- Can Azerbaijan in these conditions use the preferences West granted to it for facilitation of European integration in order to reduce dependence on Russia and Iran?

- I think Azerbaijan must continue intensive development of course to integration with both EU and NATO, not only because these organizations are actively supporting the independence and sovereignty of Baku but also because such course which will not necessarily lead to accession to any of these organizations, will become an important contribution to efforts of Azerbaijani powers in conducting a balanced external policy.

- What about neighbor Georgia, what are the real prospects of its accession to NATO, especially considering the recent adoption of charter on strategic partnership between Tbilisi and Washington?

- Some analysts suppose that this document is Georgia's step on the way to NATO membership, but there are some people who consider it a booby prize, the reflection of Washington's inability to ensure security of its allies to include this South Caucasus into the alliance. It is not difficult to see whose opinion is more grounded, considering the fact that this document was adopted during Bush's administration and will possible be reviewed by the new administration of Obama, which has not yet defined its views regarding this region.

- It means that it would be incorrect to view the charter as guarantor of security in the South Caucasus of at least of Georgia?

- Certainly, this document can contribute in this direction, but at the same time it may create new problems, if Russia or Iran decide to take immediate steps to resist this, such as, for example, supply of military hardware to Armenia (Russian strategy) or laying a railroad to Armenia (Iran's choice).

- By the way, what can you about information about a new illegal large scale supplies of military hardware to Armenia? Can this fact influence the resolution of the Karabakh conflict?

- Supplies of arms by Russia to Armenia, especially in the said amount, will gradually reduce pressure on Yerevan, open for changes in the quo status and will likely lead to conflicts. I think the actions of Moscow were a tragic mistake and Baku should focus on cooperation with Russia on a wide range of issues.

- Might Obama's administration intensify the resolution of the Karabakh conflict or everything will remain the same?

- I do not feel too optimistic about possible achievements in the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh in the nearest future. And not only because the United States is not interested in it but also because regional powers are represented by numerous players, including Russia, Iran and Armenia, which win at least owing to their position, which does not imply the resolution of the conflict, though most representatives of these countries suggest otherwise.

/Day.Az/