Strategy of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is the key to our future victories

These days, Armenia and Armenians around the world are in mourning. Exactly four years ago, on the night of November 10, 2020, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, was forced to sign a trilateral ceasefire agreement. I remember clearly how national hysteria erupted in Armenia at that time. Pashinyan was hunted by angry crowds of citizens who wanted to hold him accountable for the collapse of the myths they had lived by for more than a quarter of a century.

Pashinyan managed to escape, though his office was looted. During this period, Ararat Mirzoyan, now Armenia’s Foreign Minister, also came under attack. The protesters refused to accept that Pashinyan had saved many Armenian soldiers by agreeing to surrender. For years, the Armenian public had been told stories about the "invincibility" of Armenian soldiers, allegedly praised by ancient historians like Herodotus and Pliny the Younger.

Meanwhile, protests broke out in Yerevan, with participants accusing the international community of allowing Azerbaijan to liberate most of its temporarily occupied territories. Looking for logic in such reasoning was as futile as searching for a black cat in a dark room. But this is precisely the mindset that dominated Armenian society at the time.

Armenians were also furious at Russia, accusing it of failing to send troops to fight Azerbaijan on Azerbaijani soil. Of course, such an intervention was never going to happen, but explaining that to Armenians was like trying to convince them that two plus two equals four! They preferred to believe that this military-political debacle was the fault of others, not their own.

That was four years ago. And what is happening now? Today, Armenia is experiencing a period of collective soul-searching, with people openly expressing regret and blaming their current government. Many, especially those from the Dashnak Party and the "Karabakh clan," are quick to criticize the government. They claim that official Yerevan is gradually giving in to Azerbaijan’s demands. This, however, is a manipulative narrative. We have not seen any amendments to the Armenian Constitution, which still includes territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Moreover, we have not witnessed official Yerevan renouncing the OSCE Minsk Group’s involvement in the peace process.

On the contrary, Armenia is actively arming itself, preparing for a new conflict with Azerbaijan. This is why Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev issued a warning to Armenia and its supporters, urging them to halt the militarization of Armenia and pointing out the potential consequences of continuing such a provocative policy.

Aliyev’s demand was perfectly reasonable, yet it was met with resentment in Armenia, both from the government and opposition. This brings me to an interesting point I’d like to share: recent scientific research has called into question the old adage that a monkey, typing randomly on a keyboard for long enough, would eventually produce the complete works of Shakespeare.

Two Australian mathematicians have debunked the "infinite monkey theorem." They showed that even if every chimpanzee in the world were given the entire lifespan of the universe, they "almost certainly" would never produce Shakespeare’s works. The researchers calculated that if a monkey typed one key per second on a 30-key keyboard (with letters and common punctuation marks), the time it would take to replicate Shakespeare's works would exceed the lifespan of the universe. According to their study, the probability of a monkey randomly typing the word "bananas" in its lifetime is only about 5%.

This research got me thinking about Armenia's collective mindset. I wonder what the probability is that Armenian society will ever begin to realistically assess its situation—not as individuals, but as a nation. In reality, the truth is simple.

Yes, Azerbaijan didn’t just defeat the current Armenian government; it defeated the Armenian army, which has been built up since the country’s independence. Azerbaijan triumphed over the global Armenian diaspora, which involved a large network of politicians from the United States, Russia, and France. Many media outlets in these countries were openly anti-Azerbaijani. But in the end, all their efforts amounted to "monkey labor."

Azerbaijan achieved its goals during the 44-day war and later restored its full sovereignty and territorial integrity, culminating in last year’s one-day anti-terrorist operation in the Karabakh region. This outcome was determined by the strategic vision of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. It is a guarantee that, in the future, Azerbaijan will continue to secure victories over Armenia and the global Armenian lobby, no matter who leads Armenia—whether it is the Prime Minister, the President, or the Defense Minister.