US analyst: The South Caucasus region is in the center of US-Iranian strategic competition

Anthony Cordsman, a well-known US national security analyst, believes that the South Caucasus region is in the center of US-Iranian strategic competition.

“Azerbaijan’s location on Iran’s periphery and access to Caspian and Middle Eastern energy reserves are assets that both Iran and the US value”, the analyst says arguing, Baku maintains close ties with the US, serving as an extremely significant part of the US logistical effort to sustain operations in Afghanistan. However, he says, Iran remains a significant power in the region, and Baku can afford to neither provoke nor ignore it.

“In Armenia, meanwhile, Iran plays a significant economic role and has bolstered its influence by playing on a mutual wariness of Azerbaijan and Turkey”, he mentions. “Armenian relations with Iran are focused on trade and are of critical importance, since Armenian borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan are closed due to historic tensions with Turkey and the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan”, the analyst says.

Besides that, the analyst believes that while the US has been a strategic partner of Armenia without taking sides against Azerbaijan, “it is clear that here Iran is the closer ally”.

“The challenge for the US will be focus on incentives and good relations while quietly applying pressure and avoiding any open confrontation”, he assumes.

In the meanwhile, US- Iranian competition does not have a clear, substantive impact on the other regional states. “While Georgia and Iran share a vibrant trade relationship, the Georgian foreign policy preoccupation of limiting Russian meddling in its internal affairs takes precedence and it is Washington which provides the strongest countervailing weight against Russian influence. Policymakers in Tbilisi are likely to continue to see ties with the United States as the best hedge against Russian aggression, making it unlikely that they will support Iran in any major security disputes with Washington”, he says.

The analyst also mentioned that in sum, strategic competition is not the primary consideration for US and Iranian policy in this region. Both countries have specific evolving interests that are likely to shift in the hierarchy of each country’s grand strategic objectives in the post-Iraq and post-Afghan era.

“The manner of US withdrawal from the region, and the nature of broader US-Iranian competition will likely affect the manner and scale of each country’s engagement with Turkey and the South Caucasus, although the region is likely to remain of interest due its economic importance and energy wealth”, he added.


/APA/