Turkish PM scheduled for critical visit to US

However, because the visit is on April 11, the trip is likely to be dominated by the lead-up to April 24, the day Armenians commemorate what they term the World War I-era killings of Ottoman Armenians as genocide.

While Turkey’s prime minister ostensibly travels to the United States for a meeting on nuclear security in April, the visit is likely to be overshadowed by the run-up to April 24, a day of critical importance to Armenians.

Although Turkey widely expects a House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee to endorse a resolution calling the 1915 killings of Armenians as genocide during a Thursday vote, officials and experts both seem quietly confident the U.S. administration will intervene to prevent the resolution’s adoption during a full House vote.

“The U.S. will act according to its strategic interests. And at this stage it needs Turkey in the Middle East as well as South East Asia,” said Professor Hasan Köni of İstanbul’s Bahçeşehir University.

“It would not be a surprise if the resolution passes the panel’s vote. But, in the long run, President [Barack] Obama will step in to block its final adoption. In the past the administration stepped in for strategic reasons. Today, the U.S. has more at stake than ever. It needs Turkey on Iraq, on Afghanistan and on Iran,” said Mustafa Aydın, rector of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.

Government officials also believe the resolution will ultimately not pass, yet are prepared for an extremely tense period because pressure will mount on Turkey to proceed with a parliamentary ratification of normalization protocols with Armenia.

The U.S. will do its utmost to exert pressure on Turkey and increase tension until the last minute to convince the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, for a parliamentary vote on the protocols, according to a Turkish official familiar with the issue.

“One of the reason for the current deadlock is the prime minister’s pledge to Azerbaijan during a visit last May, [in which he said] the protocols would not be endorsed until there is a solution to Nagorno-Karabakh,” said Aydın, adding that Erdoğan has changed the official position and has now tied the improvement of Armenian ties to progress on the issue, rather than a comprehensive solution.

Armenia has occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that legally belongs to Azerbaijan, along with seven adjacent regions since 1993. Turkey closed its borders with Armenia as a result of the invasion.

Meanwhile, the Armenian Constitutional Court’s qualified support for the protocols that has been perceived by Turkey as an obstacle to progress has made it further difficult for the Turkish government to send the protocols to Parliament.

Both Köni and Aydın said they see no indications of a breakthrough on ether the Turkish-Armenian track or the Armenian-Azerbaijani track. Feridun Sinirlioğlu, the Foreign Ministry’s undersecretary, returned empty-handed from a trip to the U.S. in which he had sought legal clarifications on the Armenian court’s decision.

Despite this, government officials said intense negotiations are continuing, especially for progress on the Karabakh problem. Turkey has suggested a preliminary agreement could be signed based on the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Karabakh in a move that would help the government convince public opinion about the merit of the Armenian protocols.

Armenia, however, is asking for concessions from Azerbaijan on the future status of Karabakh before agreeing to a withdrawal, according to a Turkish official.

While intense discussions are continuing, few in Ankara believe they will bear fruit before April 24, the date Armenians commemorate what they claim was the World War I genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire.

Turkey has told the U.S. the reconciliation process with Armenia, as well as Turkish-U.S. cooperation on critical issues like Afghanistan or Iraq would suffer in the absence of a potential breakthrough with Armenia.

Such a message is likely to be delivered during Erdoğan’s attendance at a nuclear security summit hosted by Obama.

U.S. strategic needs, along with progress on Turkish reconciliation with Armenia, should provide sufficient incentive to the U.S. to block the resolution, said Aydın.

He also said it would be difficult, however, for the AKP to send the protocols to Parliament, especially when general elections are nearing.

“Behind closed doors, I think Turkey will tell the U.S. that it had initiated an Armenian initiative, thereby doing what the U.S. was expecting the government to do. The AKP will tell the U.S.: ‘Public opinion in Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia is not letting us make further progress. Trust me. Let me get over the elections and I will continue the process.’”


/Hurriyet Daily News/