India fuels Armenia’s militarisation amid fragile peace with Azerbaijan

India’s deepening military-technical cooperation with Armenia is once again making headlines. According to the Indian Aerospace Defence News (IADN), Yerevan is expected to receive the second batch of Akash-1S surface-to-air missile systems this July, following the initial deliveries that began last November. The full package, reportedly worth $720 million, includes 15 units of the upgraded Indian air defence system.

The Akash-1S, developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is a modernised version of the original Akash system. It is designed to protect critical infrastructure and military assets from aerial threats, boasting a 30-kilometre range, an 18-kilometre altitude capability, and the ability to track 64 targets while engaging 12 simultaneously. Armed with active radar homing technology, the system is positioned as a boost to Armenia’s air defence capabilities.

Yet, battlefield realities have consistently shown that theoretical performance does not always match operational effectiveness. The Akash-1S was developed primarily to counter legacy threats—manned aircraft and cruise missiles. However, modern warfare increasingly relies on UAVs, kamikaze drones, and electronic warfare systems. These evolving threats present major challenges for older systems like the Akash-1S, which struggle to detect and neutralise low-visibility and highly agile targets under real combat conditions.

This context makes India’s own shift toward the more advanced Akash-NG (Next Generation) system all the more telling. DRDO successfully tested the Akash-NG in 2021, highlighting its improved agility and capability in engaging fast-moving aerial threats. The fact that Armenia is investing heavily in a system that India itself is preparing to replace raises strategic questions about both the efficacy of the Akash-1S and the motives behind Yerevan’s procurement.

What are the implications of this acquisition for the South Caucasus region, especially in relation to Azerbaijan? Could this shift the military balance or impact ongoing peace negotiations?

Speaking to Azernews, Türkiye's former Military Attaché in Azerbaijan, Retired Brigadier General Yücel Karauz, emphasised that while the Akash system is technically defensive, its procurement sends a problematic signal during sensitive peace talks:

"The AKASH System is, of course, a defence system. Air defence is aimed at protecting the airspace. After all, it is not an offensive weapon system.

Of course, the area it covers is up to 2000 km. Therefore, Armenia's possession of this weapon system provides the ability to protect its own country against attacks that may be made against its territory. It strengthens its air defence.

It provides the ability to test and destroy police units, aircraft, UAVs, and SIHAs that will come from other countries. Therefore, it reinforces and strengthens the military balance not in an offensive sense but in a defensive sense, in terms of defending its country.

This situation, of course, renders the peace process carried out with Azerbaijan ineffective with this and similar armament activities.

It shows that its intention and purpose are not to make peace, but to gain time. Of course, these are expensive weapon systems. The fact that it has acquired these expensive weapon systems and allocated a share for them also adds a different dimension to the event for Armenia."

Karauz also noted that while such systems may boost Armenia’s defensive capabilities in the short term, they do not provide a decisive advantage in future conflict scenarios:

"This system, when acquired by Armenia, will provide it with an advantage in air and ground warfare, which are the wars of the future. But of course, there is no weapon system in the world whose effect cannot be broken.

No matter what weapon system you acquire, there will definitely be an anti-weapon or a new position, a new weapon that will make it effective. Therefore, no matter what kind of weapon it acquires, there will be no issue that will enable Armenia to gain an advantage over Azerbaijan in this sense, change the balance and, in its own way, take the lost land, Azerbaijan's homeland, by retaliation, revenge and measure."

In conclusion, the Akash-1S deal may reinforce Armenia’s air defence posture, but it does little to promote stability or peace in the region. Instead, it risks deepening mistrust at a time when confidence-building measures are urgently needed. The arms buildup under the guise of defence cannot be divorced from its broader geopolitical implications, especially when peace remains fragile and unfinished.