China’s renewable tech empire and its influence on the GCC's energy ambitions

by Umud Shokri

The geopolitical environment surrounding renewable technology and essential minerals is changing dramatically as the globe speeds up its journey to sustainable energy. China, which has become the main actor in the global supply chain for clean energy, is at the heart of this change.

In 2025, Beijing’s strategic location in renewable technology and vital minerals has taken center stage in international affairs, especially in respect to its relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations. Energy diplomacy, economic diversification initiatives, and the worldwide competition for technological leadership in the clean energy sector are all being reshaped by the dynamic interaction between China and the GCC states. In addition to affecting bilateral relations, the complex web of dependencies, rivalries, and partnerships in vital minerals and renewable technologies is also having an impact on international initiatives to fight climate change and ensure sustainable energy futures.

China’s Critical Minerals Dominance

China’s dominance of important supply chains, decades of strategic investment, and state-led policies have given it near-total control over the vital rare earth minerals sector. China has established itself as a crucial participant in the global energy revolution by refining most rare earth elements (REEs), as well as other vital battery metals like cobalt, nickel, and lithium. Its vertically integrated supply chains guarantee that Chinese companies produce the parts and finished goods needed for clean energy technology, in addition to extracting and processing these minerals. Beijing’s position in the green energy industry is cemented by this degree of control, which offers it a competitive advantage in the production of solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Its leadership is further strengthened by its substantial investments in mining activities abroad, especially in Africa and Latin America, which guarantee access to vital resources outside of its boundaries.

China’s hegemony over vital minerals extends beyond its control over resources and has wider geopolitical and economic ramifications. With 57 percent of the world’s EV manufacturing, 71 percent of battery cells, and 65 percent of battery components, China has significant influence over the price, supply stability, and technological developments of the global clean energy market. Western countries are now more concerned about supply chain vulnerabilities and strategic dependence as a result of this. Consequently, through regulatory measures, domestic manufacturing projects, and collaborations with other suppliers, the United States and the European Union are attempting to lessen their need for Chinese critical minerals.

China-GCC Energy Cooperation

Due to shared goals in energy security, economic diversification, and technical cooperation, China and the GCC countries’ energy alliance is developing quickly. China is the largest energy consumer in the world and has few domestic petroleum reserves; consequently, it has become a major purchaser of GCC gas and oil. However, Beijing has attempted to lessen the costs of its oil addiction by also making investments in the region’s supply chain integration, infrastructure, and renewable energy initiatives.

Recognizing the changing nature of the world’s energy markets, the GCC countries are strengthening their ties with China by establishing long-term energy agreements, partnering on clean energy technology, and making strategic investments in vital mineral supply chains to help them achieve their own energy transition goals.

China’s Role in the GCC’s Renewable Energy Expansion

Benefits from the China-GCC energy partnership flow both ways. By supplying state-of-the-art technology, capital, and infrastructure development to the nations of the Gulf, Chinese businesses are significantly contributing to the GCC’s renewable energy shift. By 2027, Trina Solar, one of China’s top solar energy companies, plans to build the world’s largest photovoltaic plant in the United Arab Emirates, reaffirming China’s position as a key collaborator in the growth of solar energy in the region.

As seen by the high rise in lithium battery shipments to the GCC—which rose by 26 percent between 2021 and 2022 and nearly doubled in the first three quarters of 2023—China’s impact goes beyond solar power to energy storage solutions. In line with their long-term sustainability objectives, this trend shows the GCC’s growing use of energy storage devices and electric mobility options.

In line with their long-term sustainability objectives, the GCC states see collaboration with China as a crucial part of their economic diversification plans and initiatives to lessen reliance on oil. GCC leaders have reasoned that their ambitious clean energy goals—notably Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s Net Zero by 2050 effort—can be enhanced by China’s enormous manufacturing capacity in renewable energy technology, such as solar panels, wind turbines, and battery storage.

Chinese companies are desirable partners for major energy projects in the area because they provide cutting-edge technologies at extremely affordable costs, thanks to economies of scale and overcapacity in their home renewable energy sector. Through this synergy, China finds new markets for its excess output and the GCC accelerates its energy transition, creating a win-win cooperation that transforms the energy landscape of the region.

Implications and Challenges

Global power dynamics and supply chains are being reshaped by the growing China-GCC energy alliance, which has important geopolitical and economic ramifications. This partnership is in line with China’s overarching plan to subvert Western hegemony in important economic domains, especially energy and vital minerals. A change in market leadership is evident as Chinese corporations gain traction in the GCC and increasingly outbid Western engineering and technology firms for large energy projects.

For instance, China is the principal provider of 24 of the 50 minerals that the U.S. Geological Survey has classified as “essential”—meaning in effect that the United States is still largely dependent on China for these minerals. Washington is aware of this problem, and is aggressively attempting to create supply chains that do not come via China in response, interacting with GCC countries to diversify sourcing and protect its strategic interests. With the GCC becoming a major arena for energy and resource dominance in the global energy transition, these developments underscore the growing rivalry between China and the West.

Challenges for the GCC in Securing Critical Minerals from China

The GCC still confronts several obstacles in obtaining vital minerals from China, even with the expanding energy ties. As the United States looks to create alternative supply chains, geopolitical competition is a crucial element that puts the GCC in a precarious balancing act between two powerful nations.

Furthermore, although China maintains control over the market for rare earth elements generally, it is having trouble obtaining a steady supply of several essential minerals, which may affect its capacity to continuously supply the GCC. Market volatility is still an issue since China’s hegemony in mineral processing might result in erratic price swings, making procurement plans more difficult for GCC countries. Export limits increase unpredictability even more, and China has shown that it is prepared to use these controls as a geopolitical tool. The GCC countries that depend significantly on Chinese commodities can see the risks of this approach, and will plan accordingly.

Another challenge is competition from Chinese investors, who actively protect vital mineral supply lines around the world. They frequently have greater risk tolerance and quicker project development skills. The GCC may have less access to other partners or sources because of this competition. Furthermore, GCC countries that depend on Chinese suppliers face difficulties in aligning with global Environmental and Social Governance (ESG) norms, which place growing pressure on them to follow sustainable practices in vital mineral supply chains.

Beyond resources, China dominates the whole clean energy supply chain, including solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries—making the GCC technologically dependent. The GCC’s capacity to obtain vital minerals at reasonable costs may be hampered by worries that China may manipulate pricing on global markets. The GCC needs to invest in its own processing capabilities, diversify its supply of essential minerals, and exercise prudence when navigating the intricate geopolitical environment to meet these difficulties. Prudence would dictate that the GCC states find alternatives to Beijing in case of an emergency. For instance, supply security could be improved by establishing alliances with alternate suppliers, encouraging joint ventures in areas with abundant resources, and using financial and diplomatic clout. Long-term stability in their energy transition and economic diversification initiatives will also depend on encouraging innovation in clean energy technology and minimizing dependency on a single provider.

A key component of the global energy transition is the changing energy relationship between China and the GCC nations. China is a vital partner for the GCC, which is working toward ambitious sustainable energy targets. China’s financial ability to fund extensive mineral extraction and renewable energy projects further strengthens this alliance, allowing the GCC to diversify its economies and promote its climate objectives.

But there are risks associated with this relationship as well. Over-reliance on China for essential minerals presents the GCC with difficulties, such as possible supply chain interruptions and geopolitical pressures from the rivalry between the United States and China. Furthermore, the GCC is vulnerable as it looks to establish autonomous and sustainable supply chains due to China’s near-monopoly on downstream and processing technologies. The GCC must investigate diversification tactics, like establishing alliances with other international entities and making investments in regional mineral processing capacities, to reduce these risks. This link will continue to play a significant role in determining the overall course of the global energy transition, as well as the resilience of the local economy.

Image credit: CNN

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