Mystery behind Armenia's use of Iranian ports looms out

Through Iranian ports, Armenia tries to expand its economic relations with Asian countries. For this purpose, Iran and Armenia have been holding negotiations for a long time. Local media outlets claim that Armenia will use Chabahat and Bandar Abbas ports, and Iran will provide Armenia with all relevant services.

However, many believe that Armenia will use these ports to purchase military equipment and weapons from India rather than conduct any trade with Asian countries. Statistics and the behaviour of the Armenian government confirm such claims as well. Armenia does not have a big industry to manufacture and export any products. Moreover, the Armenian government intends to boost tourism and IT rather than any manufacturing industry. As is known, neither tourism nor IT need Iranian ports. Besides, 75 percent of Armenian exports are diverted to Europe, including Russia, and 60 percent of its imports come from Europe. So, since Europe is the main trade partner, it will be more advisable for Armenia to rent ports in Georgia or Turkiye instead of Iran.

Speaking to Azernews, Dr. Mehmood ul Hassan Khan noted that a very interesting development is happening in South Caucasus. Armenia has approached the government of Iran to use its ports, and subsequently, Iran has granted Armenia access to its Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports to facilitate its trade access to India.

“In this regard, the proposed East-West transit route will serve as a supplemental component of the International North-South Transport Corridor in facilitating greater regional trade, however, Armenian designs are not economic-specific and range from greater socio-economic integration to alternative trade routes and trans-regional connectivity, and last but not least, the building of reliable security and military cooperation with India.

It hopes that Armenian ships would freely use Iran’s Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports. Yerevan has been moving towards signing formal economic agreements with Tehran to use Iranian seaports for its arms trade with India. This development is a further sign of Armenia’s shifting away from Russia. It is crystal clear that India and Iran strongly support the Armenian desire to assist in the development and use of Iran’s ports,” Ul Hassan Khan said.

He added that, moreover, it seems that the trilateral cooperation among Armenia, India, and Iran looks to improve regional transit infrastructure and elevate each country’s influence in the South Caucasus in the days to come. In a critical analysis of the emerging socio-economic, geopolitical, and geostrategic trends in the South Caucasus and greater Eurasian region, it seems that Armenian increasing cooperation with Iran and India has manifolds.

“It desires to consolidate its national military by having strong defense cooperation in terms of high-grade sophisticated armaments through the expansion of its trade options beyond the Russian-dominated EAEU and post-Soviet space. It seems that Armenia has already started its search for new security partners after Russia. India has signed a contract in 2022 to import Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, anti-tank missiles, and other munitions. Allegedly, the supplies were ferried via Iran, provoking protests,” the pundit said.

He pointed out that Armenia’s hopes for gaining immediate trade access to India via Iran’s ports may be premature and unrealistic. The most recent surgical strikes by Iran in Balochistan and Pakistan have already worsened diplomatic ties, which are on the verge of gradual reconciliation.

“The emerging trilateral alliance in the shape of India-Armenia-Iran would be the game changer in the South Caucasus for so many complex and complicated reasons. On the other hand, trilateral strategic dialogue and partnership among Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Turkiye is well-planned and based on numerous commonalities and a joint desire for regional peace, stability, and harmony. Whereas the India-Armenia-Iran alliance is anti-development, humanity, peace, prosperity, and respect for self-sovereignty and territorial integrity. India is playing with fires and flames, and its outreach towards the South Caucasus region may be another Far Cry to achieve the desired goals of socio-economic integration, trans-regional connectivity, and most importantly, security and military cooperation against Azerbaijan, Turkiye and even Pakistan,” Mehmood ul Hassan Khan said.