Qatar crisis undermines stability in Middle East region

By Kamila Aliyeva

The conflict between the emirate of Qatar and its neighbors, primarily Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, has reached the boiling point to destabilize the situation in the Middle East even further.

Seven Arab countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain broke off diplomatic relations with one of the richest and most influential states of the world, accusing it of supporting ISIS, Al-Qaeda and other terrorists. They cut air, sea and land links and ordered Qatari officials and nationals stationed in their countries to return home.

Qatar denied allegations over its support to terrorism and extremism adding that the diplomatic rift was based on "baseless fabricated claims."

However, Qatar is not going to aggravate relations with neighbor countries by taking counter-action measures.

Major reasons of crisis

Each country has possibly its own reason for taking such a decision. For instance, Bahrain-Qatar had disputes in the 1980s over the Hawar Islands. More recently Bahrain has been accusing Qatar of encouraging the Bahraini Sunnis to migrate to Qatar. It should be noted that Saudi Arabia has great leverage over Bahrain.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt are critical of Qatar’s continued support for the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), a movement that they consider aims at spreading terror.

For Saudi Arabia as well, Qatar’s relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) might be an issue as it has also declared the MB as a terrorist organization. Qatar’s soft stance on Iran, Saudis’ arch-rival, is possibly the bigger issue for Saudi Arabia.

Actually, for years now, officials in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have been angry over Qatar's rogue, activist foreign policy. Unlike neighboring Bahrain, for example, which largely supports the Saudi line, Qatar has diverged from other members in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Qatar’s independent policy and desire to gain bigger influence in the region might be another reason which angered its neighbors.

Trump’s visit on the backdrop

The diplomatic conflict erupted two weeks after the visit of U.S. President Donald Trump to Saudi Arabia.

At the Arab-Islamic summit held in Riyadh on May 21 the U.S. president called for greater international isolation of Iran, accusing Tehran of financing terrorism and supporting the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria.

At the end of May, excerpts from the speech that was attributed to Emir of Qatar which said that "it would be unwise to have tense relations with Iran, which is a strong power and guarantor of stability in the region" appeared on the website of the Qatar News Agency (QNA).

Later, the Foreign Ministry of Qatar said that the site was hacked and "speech" was placed by hackers, however, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain found this refutation unconvincing.

Saudis and the U.A.E. who have closer ties with the U.S. under Trump are seeking to crush any opposition that could weaken a united front against Iranian influence in the Middle East. If Qatar resists agreeing with Saudis, that will further aggravate the situation in the region.

Possible outcomes of Qatar's isolation

Currently, Doha faces serious problems due to economic sanctions as it relies on Gulf neighbors for 80 percent of food imports. To deal with its economic isolation, Qatar will probably look for other friends. This turn may accelerate its relationship with Turkey and Iran, who have already said they are eager to help.

Ankara voiced readiness to help resolve the dispute, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said, while Iranian officials have offered to send food to Qatar by sea.

Meanwhile, friendlier Doha-Tehran links could impact Al-Thani's alliance with Washington. That will place the U.S. in a serious dilemma. The United States has major military bases in Qatar but at the same time, the country wants to maintain close ties with its ally Saudi Arabia.